Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Coxs River at Island Hill


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Product list for Coxs River at Island Hill


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Probability distribution for Coxs River at Island Hill( Sep 2014 )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile5.1943.209
Median10.0769.441
Mean13.31015.431
75% Quartile17.92122.842
Interquartile Range12.72719.633

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
152.64170.399
244.76560.342
340.84456.393
437.64853.143
535.61150.733
633.87847.373
732.26645.004
830.78442.783
929.69640.558
1028.65238.880
1127.70137.482
1226.58735.934
1325.79034.755
1424.86533.569
1523.97432.262
1622.97431.221
1722.26330.002
1821.63228.758
1921.07227.661
2020.32426.796
2119.74625.960
2219.31625.030
2318.90424.380
2418.34323.434
2517.92222.843
2617.36422.334
2716.96421.563
2816.50920.952
2916.10320.246
3015.74019.472
3115.32118.770
3215.00418.062
3314.63117.507
3414.31016.965
3513.94016.228
3613.64015.645
3713.34315.071
3813.06214.541
3912.73614.111
4012.48813.553
4112.17713.022
4211.94112.633
4311.65112.310
4411.39911.872
4511.15311.484
4610.96011.056
4710.70910.675
4810.46610.187
4910.2879.825
5010.0769.441
519.8389.100
529.6178.765
539.3968.381
549.1968.023
559.0107.669
568.8287.251
578.6407.010
588.4406.772
598.2366.516
608.0366.189
617.8555.872
627.6245.647
637.4755.442
647.2945.197
657.0665.010
666.8514.824
676.6854.654
686.4834.437
696.2724.221
706.1114.070
715.9233.869
725.7513.712
735.5553.532
745.3813.377
755.1903.209
764.9913.064
774.8572.910
784.7362.772
794.5522.643
804.4172.480
814.2782.332
824.1352.196
833.9762.048
843.8341.928
853.6491.827
863.4701.696
873.2651.567
883.0651.467
892.8921.351
902.6931.229
912.5151.120
922.3300.999
932.1640.877
941.9600.739
951.7430.648
961.5330.549
971.3090.420
980.9900.321
990.6440.221


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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