Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Coxs River at Island Hill


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Product list for Coxs River at Island Hill


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Probability distribution for Coxs River at Island Hill( Jul 2014 )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile3.1453.612
Median8.47310.250
Mean18.55428.914
75% Quartile21.06329.195
Interquartile Range17.91925.584

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1144.746285.176
2112.139202.575
396.271172.773
483.679150.264
572.359134.188
665.402114.565
759.045101.888
853.45490.868
949.80180.860
1046.15073.930
1142.35468.553
1239.59363.009
1337.36959.013
1435.16455.178
1533.34951.236
1631.91448.305
1730.22644.988
1828.81941.813
1927.59039.199
2026.39637.243
2125.43335.420
2224.27733.403
2322.82832.158
2421.99830.300
2521.07829.208
2620.14628.284
2719.47926.882
2818.63125.814
2918.08624.674
3017.54023.411
3116.98522.328
3216.17121.228
3315.50720.411
3414.89319.665
3514.33618.604
3613.78917.825
3713.34717.049
3812.85816.364
3912.47415.802
4011.96715.095
4111.47014.431
4211.16713.963
4310.71113.563
4410.38013.044
4510.03212.589
469.60412.080
479.30111.652
489.01611.094
498.78610.677
508.47310.250
518.1439.872
527.8359.510
537.5569.077
547.3028.702
557.0148.298
566.7707.867
576.5717.609
586.3427.351
596.1497.084
605.9566.728
615.7696.402
625.5596.168
635.3575.950
645.1535.698
654.9615.503
664.7275.307
674.5615.129
684.3864.902
694.1834.676
704.0094.517
713.8234.306
723.6534.141
733.4933.952
743.3343.788
753.1443.612
762.9853.458
772.8623.295
782.7163.148
792.5873.012
802.4562.838
812.3482.679
822.2002.534
832.0752.374
841.9422.244
851.8042.135
861.7041.992
871.5781.851
881.4561.740
891.3451.613
901.2051.477
911.0911.355
920.9511.218
930.8121.080
940.6940.922
950.5770.815
960.4320.700
970.2970.545
980.1220.425
990.0000.301


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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