Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Coxs River at Island Hill


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Product list for Coxs River at Island Hill


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Probability distribution for Coxs River at Island Hill(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile3.8142.199
Median8.52910.316
Mean13.08215.708
75% Quartile17.93325.084
Interquartile Range14.11922.885

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
162.17066.023
253.35757.537
347.23454.202
442.93651.454
540.31449.415
637.38046.568
735.30744.556
833.64042.665
932.26540.767
1030.64939.330
1129.16238.129
1227.92036.795
1326.78535.774
1425.91934.744
1524.92533.603
1623.89332.689
1723.15531.613
1822.29930.506
1921.64229.522
2020.77728.741
2120.09527.980
2219.53927.126
2318.97526.525
2418.46025.642
2517.93925.084
2617.48924.602
2716.90723.862
2816.27923.270
2915.83022.578
3015.37421.810
3114.85621.102
3214.39420.378
3313.95319.803
3413.57719.233
3513.18118.447
3612.85117.814
3712.51817.179
3812.24116.585
3911.96816.096
4011.64715.451
4111.27814.825
4210.89914.362
4310.51813.971
4410.21213.434
459.90912.953
469.67512.415
479.38611.929
489.13311.298
498.83610.824
508.52910.316
518.3099.859
528.0889.408
537.8378.887
547.6068.398
557.4017.912
567.2047.339
576.9957.008
586.8076.681
596.6016.331
606.4115.886
616.2565.460
626.0455.160
635.8654.888
645.7014.567
655.4714.327
665.3184.089
675.1593.875
684.9413.607
694.7373.345
704.5823.165
714.4122.929
724.2602.749
734.1452.548
743.9682.378
753.8132.199
763.6662.047
773.5171.890
783.4051.753
793.2321.629
803.0821.476
812.9311.341
822.7791.222
832.6141.096
842.4730.998
852.3280.918
862.2170.818
872.0670.723
881.9300.653
891.7680.575
901.6440.496
911.4710.429
921.3070.359
931.1540.293
941.0150.225
950.9020.183
960.7510.142
970.5940.093
980.3980.062
990.1870.034


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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