Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Coxs River at Island Hill


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Probability distribution for Coxs River at Island Hill ( Jun 2014 )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile4.7283.374
Median10.0739.882
Mean18.46229.455
75% Quartile21.34929.058
Interquartile Range16.62125.684

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1135.610299.697
2102.506212.280
381.529180.626
468.822156.689
561.422139.588
656.162118.726
751.248105.266
846.87093.587
943.40683.003
1040.40175.692
1137.64970.030
1235.82164.204
1333.50860.014
1431.93355.999
1530.66051.881
1629.51248.825
1728.47745.373
1827.16642.077
1926.29539.368
2025.18537.345
2124.29835.463
2223.58333.384
2322.69932.101
2421.99230.192
2521.35129.071
2620.63128.123
2720.02726.688
2819.39525.596
2918.65924.431
3018.11823.144
3117.63622.041
3217.09020.923
3316.62420.094
3416.12119.337
3515.50718.264
3615.07717.476
3714.65616.692
3814.33016.002
3913.89715.436
4013.43114.725
4113.02814.058
4212.75313.588
4312.28613.188
4411.86412.668
4511.53312.212
4611.18511.704
4710.90211.277
4810.65510.721
4910.38510.306
5010.0739.882
519.7909.506
529.5359.147
539.3148.719
549.0768.348
558.8377.949
568.5677.523
578.4177.270
588.1597.016
597.9206.754
607.7016.404
617.4666.085
627.2725.856
637.0905.643
646.8605.397
656.6195.206
666.4155.016
676.2504.842
686.0504.622
695.8914.402
705.7014.248
715.5094.044
725.3323.884
735.1143.702
744.8903.544
754.7263.374
764.5473.226
774.4073.069
784.2122.929
794.0522.798
803.8762.632
813.7342.481
823.5552.342
833.3962.189
843.2252.066
853.0431.963
862.8681.828
872.7261.694
882.5851.590
892.4381.471
902.2751.343
912.1001.229
921.9131.101
931.7480.972
941.5320.826
951.3700.728
961.1580.622
970.9340.481
980.6950.372
990.3070.261


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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