Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Coxs River at Island Hill


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Product list for Coxs River at Island Hill


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Historical and exceedance probability for Coxs River at Island Hill( Aug 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1984+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Minimum (1994) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1990) (GL)
Aug14.0592.9510.4262.177198.813
Aug-Sep19.0675.0970.6194.029220.952
Aug-Oct23.8326.1170.7665.400233.416

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1033.74361.692
2019.46531.673
3012.98920.260
409.43713.295
506.7809.172
604.9836.126
703.5594.182
802.2792.678
901.1201.432

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1115.690252.636
286.151173.475
370.879146.264
458.896126.265
551.097112.273
646.77795.506
742.60184.842
839.19375.664
936.67867.391
1033.74361.692
1130.98357.283
1229.33352.745
1327.63049.478
1426.17346.344
1524.88943.123
1623.56640.728
1722.45738.017
1821.47635.419
1920.48033.277
2019.46531.673
2118.67530.177
2217.99228.519
2317.18427.494
2416.49025.964
2515.79425.062
2615.15724.299
2714.66123.139
2813.98622.255
2913.49721.309
3012.98920.260
3112.41419.358
3212.00018.441
3311.64117.760
3411.30317.136
3511.02716.248
3610.69315.594
3710.38814.942
3810.07614.365
399.72713.892
409.43713.295
419.14612.734
428.86912.337
438.51611.998
448.24611.557
457.95911.170
467.70410.736
477.53410.372
487.2689.895
497.0169.538
506.7809.172
516.5848.847
526.3458.536
536.1508.163
545.9687.839
555.8147.490
565.6417.117
575.4206.893
585.2716.669
595.1126.437
604.9836.126
614.8505.841
624.6455.637
634.4835.446
644.3625.224
654.2285.052
664.1024.880
673.9934.723
683.8684.523
693.6884.322
703.5594.182
713.4013.994
723.2573.847
733.1273.679
743.0083.533
752.8903.375
762.7703.237
772.6523.090
782.5012.958
792.3812.835
802.2792.678
812.1442.535
822.0432.403
831.9352.257
841.8092.139
851.6802.039
861.5751.908
871.4781.778
881.3681.676
891.2531.558
901.1201.432
911.0161.319
920.8901.191
930.7761.061
940.6790.911
950.5360.810
960.3920.700
970.2610.551
980.1070.434
990.0000.312


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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