Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Coxs River at Island Hill


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Product list for Coxs River at Island Hill


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Historical and exceedance probability for Coxs River at Island Hill( Apr 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1984+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Minimum (2004) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1989) (GL)
Apr10.9482.3470.0253.087101.345
Apr-May17.3664.1510.0725.586137.068
Apr-Jun24.51912.8660.21713.616177.009

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1054.07963.938
2030.86829.619
3019.61917.319
4012.96910.394
508.9656.621
606.4094.053
704.2922.547
802.5451.481
901.1970.692

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1177.025233.180
2133.951173.700
3110.750149.884
492.259132.075
581.775118.122
672.500101.377
766.38789.947
860.70779.805
956.93370.506
1054.07963.938
1150.03458.860
1247.34553.697
1344.74949.948
1441.91845.922
1539.96642.435
1637.96539.811
1735.89236.491
1833.72933.756
1932.27331.391
2030.86829.619
2129.31627.919
2227.78326.026
2326.51924.993
2425.33323.355
2524.26222.384
2623.25221.565
2722.28220.331
2821.29919.398
2920.42118.407
3019.61917.319
3118.89916.391
3218.07115.456
3317.27114.767
3416.41714.141
3515.77113.258
3615.24312.614
3714.70711.977
3814.17411.418
3913.62510.963
4012.96910.394
4112.4749.864
4212.0089.492
4311.6029.176
4411.1598.768
4510.7938.412
4610.5288.018
4710.0797.688
489.6467.260
499.2986.943
508.9656.621
518.6406.337
528.3616.067
538.1015.746
547.8465.470
557.6605.175
567.3844.863
577.1244.678
586.8634.494
596.6504.304
606.4094.053
616.1023.825
625.8683.663
635.6313.512
645.4403.339
655.2233.206
664.9933.074
674.8012.954
684.6202.802
694.4502.652
704.2922.547
714.0972.409
723.9502.301
733.7402.180
743.5602.075
753.3581.962
763.1761.865
772.9811.763
782.8651.672
792.6961.588
802.5451.481
812.4031.386
822.2581.298
832.1051.203
841.9941.127
851.8401.063
861.7460.981
871.6430.900
881.4930.838
891.3460.767
901.1970.692
911.0880.626
920.9670.553
930.8290.480
940.6990.399
950.5680.346
960.4210.290
970.3290.217
980.1500.162
990.0010.108


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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