Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Coxs River at Island Hill


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Product list for Coxs River at Island Hill


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Historical and exceedance probability for Coxs River at Island Hill(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1984+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (2004) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1988) (GL)
May6.5956.8761.8040.0472.39840.474
May-Jun13.68621.85610.5190.1939.41051.952
May-Jul21.50827.93318.3510.38411.478119.010

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1028.53751.370
2020.34726.921
3015.57917.119
4012.46411.103
5010.2407.566
608.3514.981
706.7163.353
805.1062.112
903.4761.103

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
170.135159.566
254.143121.220
347.308106.747
441.73495.097
538.71486.338
635.68275.750
733.12468.418
831.20661.833
929.86755.738
1028.53751.370
1127.49347.928
1226.27644.363
1325.36841.740
1424.45339.069
1523.53536.503
1622.84934.550
1722.13032.170
1821.59030.046
1921.03828.268
2020.34726.921
2119.71925.615
2219.23724.145
2318.71123.335
2418.22322.039
2517.68721.263
2617.24020.605
2716.80619.605
2816.38318.842
2915.99318.025
3015.57917.119
3115.20616.339
3214.81415.547
3314.44014.958
3414.14014.418
3513.82213.651
3613.54913.086
3713.32612.523
3813.04412.026
3912.76411.617
4012.46411.103
4112.22810.620
4211.99910.278
4311.7649.987
4411.5099.609
4511.2989.276
4611.0888.904
4710.8758.592
4810.6648.184
4910.4597.879
5010.2407.566
5110.0437.289
529.8567.024
539.6386.706
549.4646.431
559.2796.135
569.0385.818
578.8625.629
588.6835.439
598.5345.243
608.3514.981
618.1824.741
628.0034.569
637.8314.409
647.6294.223
657.4954.079
667.3253.935
677.1793.804
687.0183.637
696.8913.470
706.7163.353
716.5663.197
726.4173.075
736.2312.936
746.1002.815
755.9312.684
765.7442.571
775.6132.450
785.4372.342
795.2702.241
805.1062.112
814.9021.995
824.7381.887
834.5981.768
844.4471.672
854.2921.591
864.1591.486
873.9871.381
883.8391.299
893.6731.204
903.4761.103
913.2911.013
923.0550.911
932.8570.808
942.6920.690
952.3360.611
962.1280.525
971.8440.410
981.5380.320
991.2120.227


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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