Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Coxs River at Island Hill


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Product list for Coxs River at Island Hill


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Historical and exceedance probability for Coxs River at Island Hill(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1984+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (1994) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1990) (GL)
Aug14.4700.2992.9510.4262.010198.813
Aug-Sep19.5810.3195.0970.6193.714220.952
Aug-Oct24.4751.7946.1170.7665.044233.416

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1078.16461.692
2049.19631.673
3034.31020.260
4024.89613.295
5018.3049.172
6013.4356.126
709.6474.182
806.3502.678
903.5811.432

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1220.732252.636
2171.021173.475
3144.805146.264
4126.241126.265
5115.456112.273
6104.39895.506
797.48284.842
891.25375.664
984.46167.391
1078.16461.692
1174.28757.283
1270.85152.745
1367.28449.478
1464.40646.344
1561.07143.123
1658.51040.728
1756.04238.017
1853.40735.419
1951.07133.277
2049.19631.673
2147.81630.177
2246.02128.519
2344.49627.494
2442.90525.964
2541.62325.062
2639.59924.299
2738.15223.139
2836.84422.255
2935.57721.309
3034.31020.260
3133.07419.358
3231.95218.441
3330.91717.760
3429.92517.136
3528.89316.248
3628.13315.594
3727.26314.942
3826.45614.365
3925.60813.892
4024.89613.295
4124.18612.734
4223.44112.337
4322.60811.998
4421.93411.557
4521.39311.170
4620.63210.736
4720.05610.372
4819.4119.895
4918.8319.538
5018.3049.172
5117.7948.847
5217.2708.536
5316.7158.163
5416.0837.839
5515.5357.490
5615.0717.117
5714.6556.893
5814.2166.669
5913.8266.437
6013.4356.126
6113.0335.841
6212.6065.637
6312.2485.446
6411.8095.224
6511.4815.052
6611.1664.880
6710.7914.723
6810.3254.523
699.9804.322
709.6474.182
719.3623.994
729.0323.847
738.7193.679
748.3213.533
757.9583.375
767.6483.237
777.3763.090
786.9942.958
796.7012.835
806.3502.678
816.0512.535
825.7742.403
835.4402.257
845.1592.139
854.8682.039
864.6011.908
874.3471.778
884.0591.676
893.8301.558
903.5811.432
913.2781.319
923.0201.191
932.6241.061
942.3860.911
952.0560.810
961.7700.700
971.4350.551
981.0950.434
990.5080.312


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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