Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Coxs River at Island Hill


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Product list for Coxs River at Island Hill


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Historical and exceedance probability for Coxs River at Island Hill(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1984+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (2002) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1989) (GL)
Dec3.8261.1000.8510.0005.0442.548
Dec-Jan6.9332.7951.2910.0007.85710.510
Dec-Feb13.94329.8611.9270.32415.87264.652

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1028.778
2018.044
3013.253
409.846
507.575
605.651
704.266
803.031
901.814

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
182.779
262.987
353.580
447.983
543.296
639.152
735.879
832.845
930.405
1028.778
1127.255
1225.858
1324.711
1423.479
1522.322
1621.385
1720.425
1819.506
1918.733
2018.044
2117.478
2216.827
2316.375
2415.765
2515.398
2615.066
2714.564
2814.119
2913.714
3013.253
3112.839
3212.417
3312.105
3411.789
3511.368
3611.053
3710.714
3810.411
3910.152
409.846
419.574
429.355
439.176
448.945
458.713
468.475
478.248
487.984
497.779
507.575
517.385
527.205
536.956
546.768
556.531
566.316
576.175
586.025
595.869
605.651
615.465
625.329
635.188
645.032
654.915
664.789
674.658
684.527
694.376
704.266
714.122
724.007
733.877
743.757
753.629
763.514
773.386
783.277
793.171
803.031
812.898
822.781
832.642
842.533
852.438
862.308
872.180
882.074
891.944
901.814
911.687
921.543
931.390
941.206
951.075
960.927
970.713
980.531
990.322


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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