Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Coxs River at Island Hill


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Product list for Coxs River at Island Hill


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Historical and exceedance probability for Coxs River at Island Hill(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1984+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Observed (2014) (GL)Minimum (2004) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (2012) (GL)
Jan3.3611.6950.4400.0202.8133.733
Jan-Feb10.57828.7611.0760.10710.82827.126
Jan-Mar19.02255.7554.4330.23524.278125.941

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1035.352
2022.066
3015.675
4011.195
508.260
605.898
704.247
802.872
901.612

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
181.998
266.036
359.945
455.041
551.484
646.659
743.367
840.372
937.470
1035.352
1133.636
1231.788
1330.419
1429.076
1527.636
1626.519
1725.245
1823.982
1922.899
2022.066
2121.278
2220.420
2319.832
2418.992
2518.477
2618.040
2717.387
2816.879
2916.299
3015.675
3115.117
3214.563
3314.135
3413.720
3513.163
3612.728
3712.302
3811.914
3911.600
4011.195
4110.812
4210.533
4310.301
449.989
459.712
469.408
479.137
488.790
498.533
508.260
518.016
527.776
537.501
547.244
556.987
566.683
576.507
586.331
596.142
605.898
615.659
625.489
635.332
645.143
654.998
664.851
674.717
684.545
694.371
704.247
714.082
723.951
733.801
743.668
753.524
763.397
773.261
783.138
793.022
802.872
812.734
822.605
832.462
842.344
852.244
862.111
871.977
881.871
891.747
901.612
911.489
921.347
931.200
941.027
950.907
960.773
970.585
980.431
990.260


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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