Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Coxs River at Island Hill


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Historical and exceedance probability for Coxs River at Island Hill ( Mar 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1984+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Observed (2014) (GL)Minimum (2004) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1989) (GL)
Mar8.44426.9943.3570.12813.45117.469
Mar-Apr19.39229.3417.0590.15216.538118.814
Mar-May25.81031.1458.7510.19919.037154.537

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1055.829
2025.838
3015.076
409.024
505.733
603.499
702.193
801.271
900.591

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1200.053
2149.072
3129.681
4114.020
5102.236
688.016
778.220
869.489
961.492
1055.829
1151.415
1246.896
1343.610
1440.301
1537.162
1634.800
1731.957
1829.456
1927.388
2025.838
2124.351
2222.695
2321.791
2420.357
2519.507
2618.791
2717.712
2816.895
2916.028
3015.076
3114.264
3213.447
3312.845
3412.297
3511.525
3610.963
3710.406
389.918
399.521
409.024
418.561
428.236
437.961
447.605
457.295
466.950
476.663
486.290
496.014
505.733
515.486
525.251
534.972
544.732
554.475
564.204
574.043
583.883
593.718
603.499
613.302
623.161
633.030
642.880
652.764
662.650
672.546
682.414
692.284
702.193
712.073
721.981
731.875
741.784
751.687
761.603
771.515
781.436
791.363
801.271
811.189
821.113
831.031
840.966
850.911
860.840
870.770
880.717
890.656
900.591
910.534
920.472
930.409
940.340
950.294
960.246
970.184
980.137
990.091


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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