Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Wollomombi River at Coninside


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Product list for Wollomombi River at Coninside


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Exceedance probability for Wollomombi River at Coninside( Aug 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
104.40110.186
202.8366.156
302.1064.347
401.5613.114
501.1822.316
600.9081.677
700.6641.230
800.4500.858
900.2410.515

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
112.35927.295
29.28321.041
37.93718.739
46.81516.930
55.99415.647
65.58913.950
75.21912.822
84.93811.819
94.67310.868
104.40110.186
114.1679.643
123.9849.065
133.7738.642
143.6008.232
153.4657.797
163.3347.462
173.1777.084
183.0386.713
192.9276.398
202.8366.156
212.7475.929
222.6735.683
232.5985.516
242.4975.277
252.4235.132
262.3515.009
272.2894.825
282.2184.683
292.1594.521
302.1064.347
312.0174.192
321.9484.039
331.8873.920
341.8333.806
351.7853.653
361.7343.533
371.6923.416
381.6543.310
391.6083.224
401.5613.114
411.5183.009
421.4722.933
431.4272.870
441.3972.785
451.3642.710
461.3262.627
471.2932.554
481.2582.460
491.2182.390
501.1822.316
511.1552.250
521.1282.185
531.1002.110
541.0702.041
551.0421.971
561.0101.889
570.9881.841
580.9611.794
590.9361.743
600.9081.677
610.8881.612
620.8651.566
630.8361.524
640.8081.473
650.7821.433
660.7571.394
670.7371.357
680.7091.311
690.6841.264
700.6641.230
710.6431.186
720.6221.150
730.5951.109
740.5721.074
750.5521.035
760.5331.000
770.5110.963
780.4880.930
790.4670.898
800.4500.858
810.4270.820
820.4110.785
830.3900.746
840.3640.714
850.3440.687
860.3220.651
870.3010.614
880.2810.585
890.2600.551
900.2410.515
910.2240.481
920.1990.442
930.1740.402
940.1510.354
950.1250.321
960.0970.284
970.0620.233
980.0300.190
990.0000.142


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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