Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Wollomombi River at Coninside


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Product list for Wollomombi River at Coninside


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Exceedance probability for Wollomombi River at Coninside(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1015.18424.907
209.53414.510
306.56710.002
404.7877.008
503.6315.116
602.6703.633
701.9092.620
801.2541.792
900.6911.051

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
142.48171.142
231.69254.103
327.27647.843
424.42542.940
521.98339.473
619.71834.907
718.20131.889
817.20529.218
916.11926.701
1015.18424.907
1114.29523.481
1213.59321.974
1312.99620.876
1412.38319.814
1511.81018.691
1611.23217.833
1710.76416.866
1810.32415.920
199.89315.120
209.53414.510
219.19613.938
228.76813.320
238.41612.900
248.06912.305
257.74911.942
267.53211.636
277.32511.181
287.04610.828
296.84310.429
306.56710.002
316.3869.622
326.2059.247
336.0028.958
345.8208.680
355.6428.307
365.4578.018
375.2247.736
385.0727.480
394.9317.274
404.7877.008
414.6626.758
424.5226.577
434.4096.427
444.2926.224
454.1656.046
464.0545.850
473.9395.676
483.8215.454
493.7265.290
503.6315.116
513.5444.962
523.4154.810
533.3184.636
543.2224.474
553.1344.313
563.0414.122
572.9404.012
582.8403.903
592.7673.785
602.6703.633
612.5923.486
622.5113.380
632.4293.284
642.3663.167
652.2923.078
662.2082.988
672.1372.906
682.0542.801
691.9842.695
701.9092.620
711.8452.519
721.7882.440
731.7052.349
741.6312.269
751.5652.182
761.5072.106
771.4382.024
781.3771.951
791.3161.881
801.2541.792
811.1881.710
821.1241.633
831.0821.548
841.0211.479
850.9671.420
860.9111.342
870.8611.263
880.8141.202
890.7491.129
900.6911.051
910.6180.979
920.5620.897
930.5040.813
940.4400.714
950.3540.646
960.2860.571
970.2090.465
980.1170.380
990.0120.286


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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