Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Wollomombi River at Coninside


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Product list for Wollomombi River at Coninside


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Exceedance probability for Wollomombi River at Coninside(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1032.300
2017.255
3011.365
407.662
505.417
603.719
702.598
801.713
900.954

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1129.742
287.954
374.214
464.142
557.392
648.973
743.692
839.202
935.121
1032.300
1130.109
1227.837
1326.212
1424.664
1523.051
1621.834
1720.481
1819.174
1918.080
2017.255
2116.487
2215.665
2315.109
2414.328
2513.855
2613.458
2712.870
2812.418
2911.908
3011.365
3110.886
3210.415
3310.054
349.708
359.248
368.892
378.547
388.234
397.983
407.662
417.361
427.143
436.964
446.722
456.510
466.278
476.073
485.812
495.620
505.417
515.237
525.061
534.861
544.674
554.489
564.272
574.147
584.023
593.890
603.719
613.554
623.436
633.328
643.199
653.100
663.001
672.911
682.795
692.679
702.598
712.489
722.403
732.305
742.219
752.126
762.045
771.958
781.880
791.807
801.713
811.627
821.548
831.460
841.388
851.328
861.248
871.168
881.106
891.033
900.954
910.884
920.803
930.721
940.626
950.561
960.489
970.391
980.313
990.229


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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