Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Wollomombi River at Coninside


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Product list for Wollomombi River at Coninside


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Exceedance probability for Wollomombi River at Coninside(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1029.499
2015.338
309.614
406.127
504.109
602.661
701.756
801.084
900.551

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
187.433
267.345
359.668
453.503
549.050
643.061
739.026
835.409
931.966
1029.499
1127.534
1225.456
1323.945
1422.487
1520.953
1619.785
1718.477
1817.208
1916.143
2015.338
2114.588
2213.785
2313.243
2412.481
2512.021
2611.635
2711.065
2810.627
2910.135
309.614
319.155
328.705
338.363
348.035
357.601
367.267
376.945
386.654
396.423
406.127
415.851
425.652
435.489
445.270
455.079
464.872
474.688
484.457
494.287
504.109
513.952
523.799
533.626
543.465
553.308
563.123
573.018
582.914
592.802
602.661
612.524
622.428
632.340
642.235
652.155
662.076
672.004
681.912
691.820
701.756
711.671
721.605
731.529
741.463
751.393
761.331
771.266
781.208
791.153
801.084
811.022
820.964
830.901
840.850
850.807
860.751
870.696
880.653
890.603
900.551
910.504
920.451
930.398
940.338
950.297
960.254
970.196
980.151
990.106


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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