Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Wollomombi River at Coninside


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Product list for Wollomombi River at Coninside


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Exceedance probability for Wollomombi River at Coninside(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1012.95418.080
207.6009.176
305.1875.647
403.6073.537
502.5932.336
601.8431.488
701.3100.967
800.8480.586
900.4470.290

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
135.36954.721
227.69242.055
323.76537.203
421.17933.301
519.27030.480
617.31626.683
715.95324.123
814.78121.827
913.87319.643
1012.95418.080
1111.98916.837
1211.35415.524
1310.69714.570
1410.16413.652
159.65312.686
169.16311.953
178.73411.134
188.31010.341
197.9939.677
207.6009.176
217.3348.710
227.0408.212
236.7907.877
246.5557.407
256.2307.123
265.9716.886
275.7696.535
285.5486.267
295.3635.966
305.1875.647
314.9645.367
324.8085.094
334.6514.886
344.4894.687
354.3334.424
364.1714.223
374.0024.028
383.8903.853
393.7563.714
403.6073.537
413.4743.371
423.3563.253
433.2453.155
443.1423.025
453.0582.911
462.9542.787
472.8692.679
482.7682.542
492.6792.441
502.5932.336
512.5182.243
522.4342.153
532.3242.051
542.2451.957
552.1741.865
562.0991.757
572.0211.696
581.9531.635
591.9071.570
601.8431.488
611.7711.409
621.7161.353
631.6661.302
641.6101.241
651.5641.196
661.5121.150
671.4591.108
681.4141.056
691.3661.003
701.3100.967
711.2540.918
721.2080.880
731.1610.837
741.1220.800
751.0730.760
761.0340.725
770.9980.688
780.9480.656
790.9040.625
800.8480.586
810.8080.551
820.7680.519
830.7250.484
840.6790.455
850.6340.431
860.6000.401
870.5580.370
880.5260.346
890.4950.319
900.4470.290
910.4100.265
920.3740.236
930.3340.207
940.3030.175
950.2680.153
960.2290.130
970.1790.099
980.1260.076
990.0720.052


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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