Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Wollomombi River at Coninside


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Product list for Wollomombi River at Coninside


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Exceedance probability for Wollomombi River at Coninside(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1014.382
208.657
306.153
404.450
503.345
602.453
701.824
801.294
900.798

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
143.090
231.726
327.779
424.780
522.707
620.036
718.304
816.791
915.380
1014.382
1113.592
1212.760
1312.156
1411.572
1510.956
1610.484
179.953
189.434
198.993
208.657
218.342
228.001
237.768
247.438
257.237
267.066
276.813
286.616
296.392
306.153
315.939
325.727
335.564
345.406
355.195
365.030
374.869
384.722
394.603
404.450
414.306
424.201
434.114
443.996
453.892
463.777
473.675
483.545
493.448
503.345
513.253
523.163
533.059
542.962
552.865
562.750
572.683
582.617
592.545
602.453
612.363
622.298
632.238
642.166
652.111
662.055
672.004
681.938
691.871
701.824
711.761
721.711
731.653
741.602
751.546
761.497
771.445
781.397
791.352
801.294
811.240
821.190
831.134
841.087
851.048
860.996
870.943
880.901
890.852
900.798
910.749
920.692
930.633
940.563
950.514
960.459
970.382
980.318
990.246


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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