Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Wollomombi River at Coninside


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Product list for Wollomombi River at Coninside


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Exceedance probability for Wollomombi River at Coninside(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1016.40524.907
2010.10914.510
307.05910.002
405.1317.008
503.8715.116
602.8723.633
702.0832.620
801.3491.792
900.7601.051

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
144.26171.142
233.75854.103
329.46047.843
426.41642.940
523.49939.473
621.18234.907
719.73231.889
818.57729.218
917.48526.701
1016.40524.907
1115.50823.481
1214.63821.974
1313.77520.876
1413.25219.814
1512.68418.691
1612.10717.833
1711.63916.866
1811.07715.920
1910.52615.120
2010.10914.510
219.77313.938
229.43213.320
239.06912.900
248.66712.305
258.38811.942
268.10711.636
277.83811.181
287.58310.828
297.33110.429
307.05910.002
316.8769.622
326.6309.247
336.4068.958
346.2348.680
356.0178.307
365.8278.018
375.6547.736
385.4387.480
395.2737.274
405.1317.008
414.9796.758
424.8436.577
434.7036.427
444.5866.224
454.4896.046
464.3545.850
474.2195.676
484.0955.454
493.9695.290
503.8715.116
513.7484.962
523.6504.810
533.5364.636
543.4344.474
553.3364.313
563.2364.122
573.1654.012
583.0623.903
592.9523.785
602.8723.633
612.8123.486
622.7413.380
632.6563.284
642.5813.167
652.4943.078
662.4082.988
672.3262.906
682.2472.801
692.1732.695
702.0832.620
711.9902.519
721.9162.440
731.8312.349
741.7502.269
751.6912.182
761.6172.106
771.5572.024
781.4831.951
791.4191.881
801.3491.792
811.2871.710
821.2191.633
831.1661.548
841.0931.479
851.0441.420
860.9911.342
870.9391.263
880.8851.202
890.8181.129
900.7601.051
910.6870.979
920.6250.897
930.5450.813
940.4750.714
950.3910.646
960.3260.571
970.2320.465
980.1340.380
990.0360.286


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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