Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Wollomombi River at Coninside


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Exceedance probability for Wollomombi River at Coninside ( Jun 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
105.32313.732
203.4157.681
302.3645.133
401.7393.490
501.3172.480
600.9871.711
700.7331.200
800.4940.794
900.2790.445

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
116.28340.481
212.37730.773
310.45927.162
49.14524.314
58.00522.291
67.22319.615
76.58217.841
85.91916.269
95.63314.787
105.32313.732
115.02012.895
124.81412.011
134.53511.369
144.33710.749
154.10710.095
163.9169.597
173.7809.037
183.6488.491
193.5358.031
203.4157.681
213.2547.354
223.1237.002
233.0176.763
242.9286.426
252.7966.221
262.6916.048
272.5955.792
282.5165.594
292.4335.371
302.3645.133
312.2924.922
322.2314.714
332.1464.554
342.0844.401
352.0144.197
361.9524.038
371.8903.885
381.8333.745
391.7813.633
401.7393.490
411.6773.355
421.6293.257
431.5843.176
441.5403.068
451.5052.973
461.4612.868
471.4282.776
481.3892.658
491.3582.572
501.3172.480
511.2762.399
521.2402.319
531.2112.229
541.1732.144
551.1402.060
561.1121.962
571.0831.905
581.0511.849
591.0171.788
600.9871.711
610.9581.635
620.9321.582
630.9081.533
640.8771.474
650.8551.429
660.8301.384
670.7991.342
680.7811.290
690.7541.237
700.7331.200
710.7041.150
720.6831.111
730.6641.066
740.6381.026
750.6150.984
760.5900.947
770.5620.907
780.5350.871
790.5160.837
800.4940.794
810.4730.755
820.4550.718
830.4300.678
840.4080.645
850.3850.617
860.3640.580
870.3420.544
880.3210.515
890.3010.481
900.2790.445
910.2530.412
920.2290.375
930.2090.337
940.1840.293
950.1600.263
960.1350.230
970.1040.184
980.0760.148
990.0340.108


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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