Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Wollomombi River at Coninside


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Product list for Wollomombi River at Coninside


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Probability distribution for Wollomombi River at Coninside(  )

Basic Statistics
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile1.310
Median2.830
Mean4.887
75% Quartile5.958
Interquartile Range4.648

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
131.847
223.910
321.122
418.987
517.501
615.571
714.308
813.198
912.155
1011.413
1110.823
1210.198
139.742
149.301
158.832
168.472
178.066
187.666
197.327
207.066
216.821
226.556
236.374
246.116
255.958
265.824
275.624
285.469
295.292
305.102
314.932
324.763
334.633
344.507
354.337
364.204
374.074
383.955
393.859
403.736
413.618
423.533
433.461
443.365
453.280
463.186
473.102
482.995
492.915
502.830
512.754
522.679
532.593
542.512
552.431
562.335
572.279
582.223
592.163
602.085
612.009
621.954
631.903
641.842
651.795
661.748
671.704
681.647
691.590
701.550
711.495
721.452
731.402
741.358
751.310
761.267
771.221
781.180
791.140
801.089
811.042
820.998
830.948
840.907
850.872
860.826
870.778
880.741
890.696
900.648
910.603
920.552
930.498
940.433
950.388
960.337
970.264
980.203
990.134


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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