Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Wollomombi River at Coninside


Return to catchment list
Product list for Wollomombi River at Coninside


Download forecast data
Probability distribution for Wollomombi River at Coninside(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile1.5631.028
Median3.1712.357
Mean5.2684.742
75% Quartile6.5195.417
Interquartile Range4.9564.389

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
131.42637.214
225.00026.842
320.95423.239
418.62920.552
516.72818.643
615.21916.311
714.07714.795
813.19513.465
912.31912.243
1011.73211.385
1111.07110.712
1210.61810.009
1310.1439.496
149.7598.998
159.3828.480
169.0988.090
178.7817.643
188.3667.210
198.0166.849
207.7156.575
217.3996.318
227.1786.030
236.9235.850
246.6935.580
256.5215.419
266.3605.282
276.1755.073
286.0204.912
295.8094.739
305.6194.545
315.4754.377
325.2924.205
335.1464.076
344.9383.957
354.8183.786
364.6983.660
374.5603.532
384.4433.419
394.3203.325
404.2103.207
414.0783.094
423.9573.014
433.8742.945
443.7702.855
453.6682.775
463.5852.686
473.4562.610
483.3442.510
493.2542.435
503.1712.357
513.1072.288
523.0172.221
532.9582.140
542.8862.069
552.8091.992
562.7151.910
572.6461.860
582.5701.809
592.5211.757
602.4511.686
612.3881.621
622.3241.574
632.2471.529
642.1871.477
652.1411.437
662.0741.396
672.0121.359
681.9451.311
691.8961.262
701.8341.228
711.7831.182
721.7261.146
731.6841.104
741.6231.068
751.5631.028
761.4940.993
771.4510.955
781.4030.921
791.3470.889
801.2920.848
811.2370.810
821.1820.775
831.1320.736
841.0740.704
851.0180.676
860.9680.640
870.9160.604
880.8690.575
890.8200.541
900.7650.504
910.7120.471
920.6600.433
930.6090.393
940.5410.347
950.4770.314
960.4180.278
970.3410.228
980.2650.187
990.1870.142


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


Creative Commons By Attribution logo
Unless otherwise noted, all material on this page is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution Australia Licence