Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Wollomombi River at Coninside


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Product list for Wollomombi River at Coninside



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Probability distribution for Wollomombi River at Coninside ( Jul 2014 )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile0.5791.028
Median1.2312.357
Mean2.2214.742
75% Quartile2.6145.417
Interquartile Range2.0354.389

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
115.30237.214
212.08226.842
39.41623.239
48.20620.552
57.34318.643
66.56616.311
76.04214.795
85.52113.465
95.23612.243
104.88211.385
114.60310.712
124.39610.009
134.1839.496
143.9988.998
153.8588.480
163.6568.090
173.5197.643
183.3867.210
193.2656.849
203.1146.575
213.0136.318
222.9266.030
232.8145.850
242.6955.580
252.6145.419
262.5205.282
272.4525.073
282.3914.912
292.3264.739
302.2494.545
312.1774.377
322.1054.205
332.0384.076
341.9823.957
351.9173.786
361.8603.660
371.8123.532
381.7603.419
391.7173.325
401.6523.207
411.6113.094
421.5533.014
431.5142.945
441.4762.855
451.4232.775
461.3862.686
471.3402.610
481.3112.510
491.2732.435
501.2312.357
511.1892.288
521.1652.221
531.1382.140
541.1042.069
551.0741.992
561.0471.910
571.0241.860
580.9941.809
590.9621.757
600.9361.686
610.9101.621
620.8851.574
630.8601.529
640.8341.477
650.8101.437
660.7891.396
670.7641.359
680.7381.311
690.7171.262
700.6821.228
710.6601.182
720.6421.146
730.6231.104
740.5981.068
750.5791.028
760.5630.993
770.5400.955
780.5220.921
790.4910.889
800.4710.848
810.4480.810
820.4250.775
830.4040.736
840.3830.704
850.3660.676
860.3450.640
870.3200.604
880.3010.575
890.2830.541
900.2650.504
910.2410.471
920.2210.433
930.1980.393
940.1710.347
950.1470.314
960.1160.278
970.0900.228
980.0550.187
990.0080.142


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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