Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Wollomombi River at Coninside


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Historical and exceedance probability for Wollomombi River at Coninside( Apr 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1954+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Minimum (1965) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1963) (GL)
Apr1.9430.4860.0000.5042.543
Apr-May4.7400.9380.0001.63354.628
Apr-Jun6.9881.9090.0654.18857.827

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1018.213
208.918
305.231
403.109
501.957
601.183
700.731
800.418
900.191

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
152.456
241.024
336.584
432.971
530.327
626.714
724.234
821.977
919.796
1018.213
1116.942
1215.587
1314.596
1413.637
1512.624
1611.852
1710.987
1810.149
199.447
208.918
218.426
227.902
237.550
247.057
256.760
266.512
276.148
285.870
295.559
305.231
314.944
324.666
334.455
344.254
353.990
363.788
373.594
383.421
393.283
403.109
412.948
422.832
432.738
442.612
452.502
462.384
472.281
482.151
492.056
501.957
511.871
521.787
531.693
541.607
551.522
561.424
571.369
581.314
591.256
601.183
611.113
621.064
631.019
640.966
650.927
660.887
670.851
680.806
690.762
700.731
710.690
720.658
730.623
740.592
750.559
760.530
770.500
780.474
790.449
800.418
810.390
820.365
830.337
840.315
850.297
860.273
870.250
880.232
890.212
900.191
910.172
920.151
930.131
940.108
950.093
960.078
970.058
980.043
990.028


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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