Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Wollomombi River at Coninside


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Historical and exceedance probability for Wollomombi River at Coninside(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1954+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (1994) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1967) (GL)
Jun2.2700.5090.9710.0942.51032.815
Jun-Jul4.5712.3102.4350.2083.19436.426
Jun-Aug6.0562.7252.8490.3114.49038.509

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
109.67113.732
206.2857.681
304.3625.133
403.2343.490
502.4652.480
601.8651.711
701.3961.200
800.9570.794
900.5630.445

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
126.76540.481
220.96630.773
317.66627.162
415.84224.314
514.16922.291
612.95719.615
711.71417.841
810.83816.269
910.06214.787
109.67113.732
119.10012.895
128.61412.011
138.20911.369
147.94710.749
157.57310.095
167.2689.597
176.9529.037
186.7038.491
196.4858.031
206.2857.681
216.0217.354
225.7687.002
235.5586.763
245.3676.426
255.1656.221
264.9866.048
274.8145.792
284.6665.594
294.4835.371
304.3625.133
314.2404.922
324.1074.714
333.9894.554
343.8544.401
353.7394.197
363.6174.038
373.5153.885
383.4383.745
393.3373.633
403.2343.490
413.1253.355
423.0553.257
432.9693.176
442.9013.068
452.8202.973
462.7422.868
472.6772.776
482.6092.658
492.5502.572
502.4652.480
512.3972.399
522.3332.319
532.2672.229
542.2022.144
552.1472.060
562.0851.962
572.0241.905
581.9681.849
591.9111.788
601.8651.711
611.8201.635
621.7661.582
631.7131.533
641.6691.474
651.6201.429
661.5741.384
671.5301.342
681.4861.290
691.4451.237
701.3961.200
711.3481.150
721.3011.111
731.2631.066
741.2201.026
751.1870.984
761.1330.947
771.0890.907
781.0420.871
791.0010.837
800.9570.794
810.9260.755
820.8880.718
830.8570.678
840.8080.645
850.7620.617
860.7230.580
870.6850.544
880.6470.515
890.6100.481
900.5630.445
910.5140.412
920.4750.375
930.4440.337
940.3880.293
950.3450.263
960.2930.230
970.2370.184
980.1980.148
990.1300.108


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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