Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Wollomombi River at Coninside


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Historical and exceedance probability for Wollomombi River at Coninside(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1954+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (1980) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1998) (GL)
Aug1.4690.4150.4140.0821.29613.927
Aug-Sep2.7560.6490.6530.1012.29129.347
Aug-Oct4.2440.7330.6830.1083.16830.737

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1010.41910.186
207.1956.156
305.4824.347
404.2073.114
503.2682.316
602.5511.677
701.9351.230
801.3800.858
900.8220.515

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
122.93927.295
218.96521.041
316.58218.739
414.87416.930
513.67115.647
612.94513.950
712.20212.822
811.55911.819
911.02010.868
1010.41910.186
119.9749.643
129.5089.065
139.1578.642
148.8018.232
158.5827.797
168.3037.462
177.9887.084
187.6956.713
197.4266.398
207.1956.156
216.9785.929
226.7935.683
236.6555.516
246.4895.277
256.3045.132
266.1715.009
276.0094.825
285.8314.683
295.6634.521
305.4824.347
315.3344.192
325.1774.039
335.0513.920
344.9463.806
354.8143.653
364.6633.533
374.5403.416
384.4113.310
394.3173.224
404.2073.114
414.1083.009
424.0092.933
433.8912.870
443.7872.785
453.6922.710
463.5972.627
473.5392.554
483.4362.460
493.3482.390
503.2682.316
513.1742.250
523.0922.185
533.0162.110
542.9592.041
552.8991.971
562.8221.889
572.7571.841
582.6901.794
592.6251.743
602.5511.677
612.4941.612
622.4271.566
632.3721.524
642.3061.473
652.2451.433
662.1771.394
672.1221.357
682.0611.311
691.9931.264
701.9351.230
711.8771.186
721.8151.150
731.7671.109
741.7031.074
751.6351.035
761.5761.000
771.5310.963
781.4870.930
791.4380.898
801.3800.858
811.3350.820
821.2880.785
831.2230.746
841.1650.714
851.1040.687
861.0520.651
870.9980.614
880.9370.585
890.8720.551
900.8220.515
910.7810.481
920.7190.442
930.6550.402
940.5760.354
950.5120.321
960.4480.284
970.3760.233
980.2780.190
990.1930.142


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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