Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Wollomombi River at Coninside


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Historical and exceedance probability for Wollomombi River at Coninside ( Mar 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1954+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Observed (2014) (GL)Minimum (1965) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1963) (GL)
Mar2.86010.9371.0440.0022.1378.841
Mar-Apr4.80411.4231.4960.0022.64211.384
Mar-May7.60011.8751.5910.0023.77063.469

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1020.544
2010.474
306.460
404.049
502.672
601.696
701.095
800.655
900.310

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
161.729
247.502
342.052
437.668
534.498
630.229
727.349
824.765
922.306
1020.544
1119.142
1217.659
1316.582
1415.544
1514.452
1613.623
1712.695
1811.796
1911.043
2010.474
219.945
229.380
238.999
248.464
258.141
267.871
277.472
287.166
296.823
306.460
316.141
325.829
335.591
345.364
355.064
364.834
374.612
384.411
394.252
404.049
413.860
423.724
433.612
443.462
453.332
463.190
473.066
482.908
492.793
502.672
512.566
522.462
532.345
542.237
552.131
562.007
571.936
581.866
591.791
601.696
611.605
621.541
631.482
641.412
651.360
661.307
671.259
681.198
691.138
701.095
711.039
720.995
730.946
740.902
750.856
760.816
770.773
780.735
790.700
800.655
810.614
820.576
830.536
840.503
850.475
860.439
870.403
880.376
890.344
900.310
910.281
920.247
930.213
940.176
950.150
960.123
970.087
980.060
990.032


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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