Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Wollomombi River at Coninside


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Historical and exceedance probability for Wollomombi River at Coninside ( Jan 2013 )

Historical Observations
Average (1954+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (1980) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1971) (GL)
Jan5.6891.0957.7680.1103.07947.884
Jan-Feb11.8984.37223.7430.2596.593140.801
Jan-Mar14.6145.25734.6800.2657.698143.564

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1035.686
2018.806
3012.201
408.096
505.641
603.811
702.621
801.698
900.922

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1129.657
292.682
379.566
469.566
562.668
653.840
748.181
843.299
938.812
1035.686
1133.245
1230.706
1328.884
1427.146
1525.332
1623.962
1722.438
1820.966
1919.735
2018.806
2117.942
2217.017
2316.393
2415.516
2514.986
2614.540
2713.882
2813.376
2912.806
3012.201
3111.666
3211.142
3310.742
3410.357
359.847
369.452
379.071
388.725
398.449
408.096
417.764
427.525
437.328
447.064
456.831
466.578
476.354
486.070
495.861
505.641
515.446
525.255
535.038
544.836
554.637
564.404
574.269
584.136
593.993
603.811
613.634
623.509
633.394
643.256
653.152
663.047
672.951
682.829
692.707
702.621
712.506
722.416
732.314
742.224
752.127
762.042
771.952
781.871
791.795
801.698
811.609
821.527
831.437
841.363
851.301
861.220
871.139
881.075
891.001
900.922
910.851
920.770
930.688
940.593
950.529
960.459
970.364
980.288
990.208


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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