Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Nowendoc River at Rocks Crossing


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Product list for Nowendoc River at Rocks Crossing


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Exceedance probability for Nowendoc River at Rocks Crossing( Oct 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1071.725144.219
2052.05891.197
3040.48767.092
4032.14450.211
5026.05238.880
6021.18729.434
7017.12922.618
8012.86816.629
908.53610.795

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1172.088408.186
2138.351301.945
3119.300265.580
4104.493238.489
596.150219.182
690.019195.450
783.778179.884
878.932166.101
975.456153.295
1071.725144.219
1168.852137.030
1266.789129.460
1364.558123.890
1462.165118.440
1559.946112.722
1657.535108.384
1756.046103.375
1854.51398.471
1953.24294.344
2052.05891.197
2150.55588.217
2249.09884.859
2347.90582.752
2446.50979.560
2545.34177.652
2644.36576.019
2743.26573.507
2842.16971.565
2941.22269.460
3040.48767.092
3139.44365.024
3238.20462.889
3337.36461.282
3436.54759.792
3535.54457.643
3634.80356.037
3734.16554.413
3833.42052.959
3932.72251.751
4032.14450.211
4131.43448.740
4230.79147.689
4330.26646.784
4429.59445.593
4528.84344.535
4628.22043.337
4727.75542.317
4827.10140.967
4926.55939.943
5026.05238.880
5125.58137.926
5225.00737.001
5324.38835.880
5423.98534.892
5523.36333.812
5623.00932.641
5722.40431.930
5822.00431.211
5921.63030.457
6021.18729.434
6120.72528.485
6220.28927.792
6319.86727.140
6419.46626.373
6519.07825.771
6618.71025.162
6718.28724.600
6817.91323.875
6917.56123.140
7017.12922.618
7116.68221.912
7216.32921.353
7315.81920.705
7415.41120.133
7514.94719.506
7614.59118.953
7714.12818.357
7813.74217.813
7913.33017.297
8012.86816.629
8112.54216.010
8212.17915.429
8311.71614.777
8411.30514.237
8510.74913.775
8610.30713.159
879.87912.532
889.43212.034
898.99811.443
908.53610.795
918.09510.197
927.4549.502
937.0378.773
946.5007.900
955.8867.285
965.1696.586
974.4345.584
983.6424.736
992.8373.765


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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