Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Nowendoc River at Rocks Crossing


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Product list for Nowendoc River at Rocks Crossing


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Exceedance probability for Nowendoc River at Rocks Crossing( Jul 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1034.882149.300
2025.07998.348
3020.00274.260
4016.21756.922
5013.16845.002
6010.81434.839
708.69927.339
806.57620.598
904.19813.835

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
175.119380.593
261.495290.549
352.915258.981
448.744235.134
545.672217.944
642.572196.563
740.293182.374
837.947169.690
936.415157.797
1034.882149.300
1133.468142.527
1232.474135.354
1331.295130.047
1430.276124.830
1529.179119.328
1628.224115.135
1727.311110.273
1826.385105.489
1925.672101.444
2025.07998.348
2124.51095.407
2223.92392.081
2323.45789.988
2422.82286.806
2522.36384.899
2621.92283.263
2721.42880.740
2821.00378.784
2920.54476.659
3020.00274.260
3119.56172.159
3219.17269.985
3318.80668.343
3418.39666.817
3518.00164.611
3617.64562.957
3717.33661.281
3816.92259.776
3916.57358.523
4016.21756.922
4115.86155.389
4215.59254.291
4315.26753.344
4414.95752.096
4514.63350.983
4614.29449.722
4713.95248.646
4813.68247.217
4913.38646.131
5013.16845.002
5112.98043.986
5212.71142.998
5312.47541.799
5412.21840.740
5511.95839.579
5611.68538.316
5711.48037.548
5811.32536.769
5911.05535.952
6010.81434.839
6110.63133.804
6210.40133.047
6310.14032.332
649.99331.491
659.75230.829
669.49930.158
679.32029.537
689.13028.735
698.88927.920
708.69927.339
718.46526.553
728.21625.929
737.96425.204
747.77924.562
757.56323.857
767.37623.234
777.21422.560
787.03221.943
796.80021.358
806.57620.598
816.36719.890
826.12419.224
835.87918.474
845.59617.853
855.32117.318
865.10316.604
874.90815.874
884.68115.292
894.44914.599
904.19813.835
913.91613.129
923.62112.302
933.34111.430
943.08010.378
952.7729.631
962.4118.776
972.0717.538
981.3816.478
990.4955.243


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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