Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Nowendoc River at Rocks Crossing


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Product list for Nowendoc River at Rocks Crossing


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Exceedance probability for Nowendoc River at Rocks Crossing( Apr 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10183.071273.338
20122.010166.495
3086.934119.617
4065.38987.589
5050.02366.550
6037.53849.363
7028.31337.209
8018.84226.752
9010.50716.830

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1460.655857.128
2376.774613.773
3328.983532.753
4290.777473.296
5260.462431.429
6238.316380.584
7221.037347.622
8208.437318.704
9193.537292.072
10183.071273.338
11173.485258.587
12166.460243.140
13159.479231.829
14153.205220.812
15146.412209.304
16141.178200.610
17134.565190.613
18129.169180.868
19125.915172.700
20122.010166.495
21117.786160.634
22113.709154.053
23108.191149.935
24104.787143.711
25102.495140.002
2699.196136.834
2795.240131.971
2892.698128.221
2989.819124.167
3086.934119.617
3184.169115.654
3282.021111.576
3379.994108.512
3478.203105.677
3575.932101.599
3674.61698.559
3771.47495.492
3869.30692.752
3967.10990.480
4065.38987.589
4163.69484.836
4261.64782.872
4360.00881.183
4458.39578.966
4556.90076.998
4655.53474.776
4754.19272.888
4852.89370.393
4951.46068.506
5050.02366.550
5148.48664.798
5247.13463.103
5345.77561.052
5444.44759.250
5542.95357.284
5641.79255.156
5740.59753.869
5839.36452.567
5938.40351.206
6037.53849.363
6136.54547.656
6235.58446.414
6334.48645.245
6433.63843.876
6532.62942.802
6631.71141.718
6730.75640.718
6830.04439.432
6929.09938.132
7028.31337.209
7127.35535.964
7226.39334.981
7325.47533.844
7424.46932.842
7523.44131.746
7622.51030.781
7721.55329.744
7820.62328.799
7919.64827.906
8018.84226.752
8118.13425.685
8217.31424.685
8316.35623.568
8415.43322.647
8514.69121.859
8613.98320.813
8713.00019.752
8812.24918.911
8911.31917.916
9010.50716.830
919.70515.833
928.63814.679
937.71113.474
946.65612.042
955.52011.038
964.3769.907
973.1938.300
981.7456.956
990.0005.439


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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