Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Nowendoc River at Rocks Crossing


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Product list for Nowendoc River at Rocks Crossing


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Exceedance probability for Nowendoc River at Rocks Crossing(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1091.548211.811
2062.784128.431
3047.75691.018
4037.52965.543
5029.56948.989
6023.79035.661
7018.39526.394
8013.36018.570
908.62211.329

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1234.231573.849
2180.250440.524
3150.234391.313
4134.416353.267
5124.860325.409
6115.416290.327
7109.137266.841
8101.767245.755
997.033225.952
1091.548211.811
1186.998200.559
1283.862188.672
1380.626179.906
1477.793171.320
1574.619162.304
1672.248155.465
1769.386147.572
1866.755139.853
1964.785133.367
2062.784128.431
2161.333123.763
2258.934118.515
2357.091115.230
2456.002110.261
2554.427107.299
2652.884104.768
2751.697100.884
2850.36097.889
2948.75194.650
3047.75691.018
3146.61187.856
3245.50684.604
3344.27982.162
3443.16479.905
3542.07476.659
3641.03274.242
3740.10571.807
3839.11569.633
3938.20067.832
4037.52965.543
4136.68563.366
4235.57961.815
4334.76860.481
4433.89158.734
4533.15857.184
4632.49255.437
4731.95653.954
4831.20751.997
4930.42350.519
5029.56948.989
5128.95247.622
5228.25246.300
5327.72244.703
5427.20943.302
5526.60241.777
5626.13140.129
5725.47639.134
5824.74338.128
5924.27937.079
6023.79035.661
6122.96134.350
6222.42133.398
6321.93832.504
6421.44231.458
6520.92730.638
6620.40729.813
6719.88829.053
6819.42928.077
6918.87027.092
7018.39526.394
7117.79925.454
7217.38624.714
7316.78423.859
7416.22623.107
7515.67822.286
7615.29021.565
7714.74820.791
7814.31020.088
7913.85219.425
8013.36018.570
8112.89817.781
8212.46617.045
8311.93216.223
8411.55815.548
8511.08914.972
8610.64714.209
8710.20713.438
889.74512.829
899.19412.111
908.62211.329
918.14810.615
927.4459.792
936.8508.937
946.1527.928
955.5807.225
964.8566.438
974.1125.330
983.2854.415
992.0813.396


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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