Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Nowendoc River at Rocks Crossing


Return to catchment list
Product list for Nowendoc River at Rocks Crossing


Download forecast data
Exceedance probability for Nowendoc River at Rocks Crossing(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10470.161354.671
20337.832213.481
30257.954150.957
40201.663108.479
50160.74281.000
60126.85858.958
7098.68143.525
8070.95230.594
9044.08718.641

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1925.083995.168
2795.233754.220
3705.772667.168
4640.803599.596
5608.320552.114
6566.215489.941
7539.572449.024
8509.538412.900
9489.191378.894
10470.161354.671
11452.037335.419
12430.588315.040
13412.841300.180
14398.968285.797
15388.047270.562
16376.349258.889
17365.699245.719
18355.555232.805
19344.797221.849
20337.832213.481
21327.967205.613
22319.575197.101
23312.099191.301
24302.318183.066
25294.007178.035
26287.503173.782
27278.177167.445
28271.736162.530
29263.616156.945
30257.954150.957
31251.361145.620
32245.086140.335
33239.672136.256
34233.899132.317
35228.687127.038
36223.213122.922
37216.666118.905
38210.934115.240
39206.603112.286
40201.663108.479
41196.870104.881
42192.878102.266
43188.641100.096
44184.81897.164
45180.11694.575
46175.92991.730
47171.25089.196
48167.68085.955
49164.15783.551
50160.74281.000
51157.09778.726
52153.40776.490
53150.06273.923
54146.77371.517
55143.13369.124
56138.87366.287
57136.22564.642
58132.54563.005
59129.63561.236
60126.85858.958
61124.25056.732
62120.81955.138
63117.03353.672
64114.28051.902
65111.29150.546
66108.63549.180
67105.83847.922
68103.82046.308
69101.28744.679
7098.68143.525
7196.03641.971
7293.60440.747
7390.57139.333
7487.80138.090
7585.15636.734
7681.91535.542
7779.08534.264
7876.52633.102
7973.43832.005
8070.95230.594
8168.53229.291
8265.85328.074
8362.87026.718
8459.79225.604
8556.42624.652
8654.31923.393
8751.54122.120
8848.82221.115
8945.97819.930
9044.08718.641
9141.64417.463
9238.21516.105
9334.75614.696
9431.62413.032
9528.21411.875
9624.58110.578
9720.9298.754
9816.3787.248
9911.1775.571


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


Creative Commons By Attribution logo
Unless otherwise noted, all material on this page is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution Australia Licence