Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Nowendoc River at Rocks Crossing


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Product list for Nowendoc River at Rocks Crossing


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Exceedance probability for Nowendoc River at Rocks Crossing(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10123.964136.121
2088.16487.145
3068.36164.917
4055.16449.235
5044.74038.602
6036.30629.635
7029.46323.080
8022.11517.241
9015.16111.445

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1292.952416.248
2240.018292.491
3199.690254.185
4181.245226.693
5167.691207.568
6156.229184.522
7145.195169.645
8136.620156.606
9130.432144.590
10123.964136.121
11119.401129.438
12114.005122.422
13110.924117.269
14106.507112.237
15102.392106.963
1699.778102.966
1795.79498.353
1893.19193.839
1990.67190.041
2088.16487.145
2185.62784.401
2283.66181.310
2381.99979.369
2479.94676.428
2578.03874.669
2676.09773.163
2773.76870.844
2872.14969.052
2970.53467.107
3068.36164.917
3167.02363.003
3265.59161.026
3364.39159.536
3462.88458.154
3561.71256.158
3660.30754.665
3759.07553.153
3857.91851.799
3956.51350.673
4055.16449.235
4153.75047.861
4252.67446.878
4351.92646.030
4450.79944.915
4549.35243.922
4648.38042.798
4747.49441.840
4846.44840.569
4945.70039.604
5044.74038.602
5143.89137.701
5243.07636.827
5342.10135.765
5441.25234.830
5540.30733.805
5639.46532.692
5738.75132.016
5837.81631.330
5937.10030.612
6036.30629.635
6135.65328.727
6234.99128.063
6334.26027.438
6433.54326.702
6532.86526.123
6632.10725.537
6731.38624.995
6830.67824.296
6930.04723.586
7029.46323.080
7128.57122.396
7227.81521.854
7327.20121.225
7426.29620.668
7525.67520.058
7624.90119.518
7724.26218.935
7823.61618.402
7922.89717.897
8022.11517.241
8121.40716.632
8220.78216.058
8320.03715.414
8419.23114.880
8518.74214.421
8618.07213.810
8717.40913.185
8816.67412.688
8915.94612.096
9015.16111.445
9114.16810.844
9213.31310.142
9312.2169.403
9411.3308.514
9510.3877.884
969.4427.165
978.1856.127
986.6215.242
994.8264.217


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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