Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Nowendoc River at Rocks Crossing


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Product list for Nowendoc River at Rocks Crossing


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Exceedance probability for Nowendoc River at Rocks Crossing(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1080.579144.219
2058.28591.197
3045.44967.092
4036.11450.211
5029.46838.880
6023.95429.434
7019.41722.618
8014.53316.629
909.79110.795

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1188.993408.186
2153.999301.945
3133.619265.580
4116.789238.489
5107.575219.182
6100.890195.450
793.618179.884
889.217166.101
984.491153.295
1080.579144.219
1177.315137.030
1274.908129.460
1372.637123.890
1469.965118.440
1567.349112.722
1664.749108.384
1763.036103.375
1861.05198.471
1959.87494.344
2058.28591.197
2156.84688.217
2255.50584.859
2353.63282.752
2452.06879.560
2550.86677.652
2649.78176.019
2748.77573.507
2847.21571.565
2946.32269.460
3045.44967.092
3144.34065.024
3243.30962.889
3342.22061.282
3441.28359.792
3540.13057.643
3639.20956.037
3738.38554.413
3837.63652.959
3936.96751.751
4036.11450.211
4135.42548.740
4234.74047.689
4334.02846.784
4433.37945.593
4532.52044.535
4631.86043.337
4731.29142.317
4830.48240.967
4929.96039.943
5029.46838.880
5128.83437.926
5228.26537.001
5327.58535.880
5426.89134.892
5526.46233.812
5625.78232.641
5725.33231.930
5824.88031.211
5924.42430.457
6023.95429.434
6123.44528.485
6222.96327.792
6322.47227.140
6421.98826.373
6521.58725.771
6621.14025.162
6720.76224.600
6820.31523.875
6919.84223.140
7019.41722.618
7118.93121.912
7218.47321.353
7317.89320.705
7417.48120.133
7516.96119.506
7616.54318.953
7716.07018.357
7815.62917.813
7915.15117.297
8014.53316.629
8114.23116.010
8213.78415.429
8313.31614.777
8412.78714.237
8512.32013.775
8611.71013.159
8711.27412.532
8810.77712.034
8910.26811.443
909.79110.795
919.25110.197
928.6309.502
937.9948.773
947.4427.900
956.7607.285
965.9486.586
975.1645.584
984.2634.736
993.3763.765


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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