Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Nowendoc River at Rocks Crossing


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Product list for Nowendoc River at Rocks Crossing


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Exceedance probability for Nowendoc River at Rocks Crossing(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10130.005211.811
2089.926128.431
3069.05191.018
4053.99765.543
5043.40348.989
6034.20435.661
7026.72326.394
8019.58518.570
9013.10611.329

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1316.675573.849
2243.923440.524
3208.311391.313
4189.619353.267
5173.262325.409
6162.420290.327
7151.492266.841
8143.112245.755
9136.443225.952
10130.005211.811
11125.586200.559
12120.406188.672
13114.400179.906
14109.716171.320
15105.783162.304
16102.547155.465
1798.412147.572
1895.964139.853
1992.743133.367
2089.926128.431
2187.597123.763
2285.151118.515
2382.599115.230
2480.040110.261
2577.771107.299
2676.070104.768
2773.859100.884
2871.94597.889
2970.52094.650
3069.05191.018
3167.61887.856
3265.85684.604
3364.16182.162
3462.61779.905
3560.68376.659
3659.30074.242
3758.05371.807
3856.38869.633
3954.94967.832
4053.99765.543
4152.62863.366
4251.60461.815
4350.59360.481
4449.29458.734
4548.23457.184
4647.23655.437
4745.93553.954
4845.12951.997
4944.34550.519
5043.40348.989
5142.03247.622
5241.05846.300
5340.16544.703
5439.09143.302
5538.07041.777
5637.28140.129
5736.51439.134
5835.78338.128
5935.10637.079
6034.20435.661
6133.52834.350
6232.85933.398
6331.99132.504
6431.24131.458
6530.35430.638
6629.34129.813
6728.60629.053
6827.93228.077
6927.21827.092
7026.72326.394
7125.72425.454
7224.95424.714
7324.31923.859
7423.60923.107
7522.94422.286
7622.41421.565
7721.72920.791
7820.95820.088
7920.14219.425
8019.58518.570
8118.93017.781
8218.18917.045
8317.63716.223
8416.96015.548
8516.38814.972
8615.81214.209
8715.21913.438
8814.55212.829
8913.87112.111
9013.10611.329
9112.30210.615
9211.4369.792
9310.3648.937
949.5357.928
958.5977.225
967.6896.438
976.3615.330
985.4214.415
993.7903.396


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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