Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Nowendoc River at Rocks Crossing


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Product list for Nowendoc River at Rocks Crossing



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Exceedance probability for Nowendoc River at Rocks Crossing ( Jun 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1066.996199.453
2046.789129.677
3035.23996.938
4027.61873.504
5022.01257.562
6017.49044.125
7013.22734.226
809.28225.479
905.18316.826

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1158.965509.207
2127.031390.393
3110.344348.442
4100.934316.154
592.542293.565
684.136264.040
778.009244.594
874.032227.380
970.778211.105
1066.996199.453
1164.286190.146
1261.451180.242
1359.001172.980
1457.276165.914
1555.106158.386
1653.192152.584
1751.149145.998
1849.398139.497
1948.128133.944
2046.789129.677
2145.372125.644
2243.976121.256
2342.887118.251
2441.596113.960
2540.415111.325
2639.310109.089
2738.179105.741
2837.215103.131
2936.143100.152
3035.23996.938
3134.10494.058
3233.20491.189
3332.35388.963
3431.74786.804
3531.01383.894
3630.39181.612
3729.74679.373
3829.05477.319
3928.32675.657
4027.61873.504
4127.05371.457
4226.43169.963
4325.79568.718
4425.20667.029
4524.56665.531
4624.16363.877
4723.58262.397
4823.02660.494
4922.51059.075
5022.01257.562
5121.54156.206
5221.01254.867
5320.53753.322
5420.18851.866
5519.79450.409
5619.31948.671
5718.84147.659
5818.39546.647
5917.94045.548
6017.49044.125
6117.01042.727
6216.57341.720
6316.16740.789
6415.72139.660
6515.24738.791
6614.82637.911
6714.41237.098
6814.01336.049
6913.65834.984
7013.22734.226
7112.77833.201
7212.47632.388
7312.00031.444
7411.62930.610
7511.26129.695
7610.81428.886
7710.48728.014
7810.09327.216
799.69526.460
809.28225.479
818.90324.567
828.49223.710
838.15522.747
847.68821.949
857.31521.264
866.93320.351
876.50119.420
886.05318.678
895.62417.796
905.18316.826
914.86215.932
924.42014.887
933.94213.788
943.41512.468
952.78711.534
962.20710.469
971.4068.934
980.4447.627
990.0006.118


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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