Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Nowendoc River at Rocks Crossing


Return to catchment list
Product list for Nowendoc River at Rocks Crossing



Download forecast data
Exceedance probability for Nowendoc River at Rocks Crossing ( Jan 2012 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10579.127427.042
20467.694267.675
30385.807188.078
40317.808132.090
50258.76995.875
60204.73467.354
70157.83547.953
80110.85032.271
9064.19418.476

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1909.505932.422
2801.138764.946
3749.702700.066
4707.909647.257
5675.838608.541
6649.702555.389
7629.351518.609
8613.359484.754
9597.273451.554
10579.127427.042
11565.164407.012
12553.295385.252
13537.955369.012
14528.001352.983
15516.475335.667
16505.020322.161
17496.572306.676
18488.290291.238
19481.229277.945
20467.694267.675
21459.617257.928
22449.481247.288
23441.562239.982
24433.291229.535
25424.565223.113
26415.964217.660
27409.078209.499
28400.531203.140
29392.937195.887
30385.807188.078
31378.965181.094
32371.828174.157
33366.280168.793
34359.384163.602
35352.847156.636
36346.200151.198
37337.287145.886
38331.672141.036
39325.925137.127
40317.808132.090
41311.884127.330
42305.561123.872
43298.894121.004
44293.117117.132
45286.470113.715
46280.887109.965
47276.055106.630
48270.801102.370
49264.18399.217
50258.76995.875
51253.46992.903
52248.49889.985
53243.43686.643
54237.67283.518
55231.95280.418
56225.92676.754
57220.66274.636
58215.28572.533
59209.63870.265
60204.73467.354
61199.52064.521
62196.27762.498
63191.69460.643
64187.04058.409
65182.08056.704
66176.32554.991
67171.33053.418
68167.36951.405
69162.46649.382
70157.83547.953
71152.88546.037
72147.79444.533
73142.50642.802
74138.63941.286
75133.70039.638
76129.33938.196
77125.79936.655
78120.08835.261
79115.48033.951
80110.85032.271
81106.49130.730
82102.88529.297
8398.06827.710
8492.82126.412
8588.99625.310
8683.74423.860
8777.91122.403
8873.44521.260
8968.42019.921
9064.19418.476
9159.56817.167
9254.90015.671
9349.61914.135
9444.91812.345
9539.46111.117
9635.2379.758
9729.8537.884
9822.5686.373
9916.0144.738


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


Creative Commons By Attribution logo
Unless otherwise noted, all material on this page is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution Australia Licence