Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Nowendoc River at Rocks Crossing


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Product list for Nowendoc River at Rocks Crossing


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Probability distribution for Nowendoc River at Rocks Crossing( Sep 2014 )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile18.87217.725
Median34.20336.123
Mean49.27262.185
75% Quartile61.25273.428
Interquartile Range42.37955.703

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1267.827438.027
2200.658308.828
3171.290267.623
4151.981237.825
5140.284217.026
6128.314191.923
7120.827175.717
8112.719161.526
9107.311148.469
10101.663139.283
1196.911132.048
1292.262124.465
1389.228118.907
1485.969113.489
1582.822107.822
1679.647103.535
1777.61098.598
1874.86393.778
1972.25589.730
2070.77886.651
2168.41583.739
2266.61880.463
2364.78978.410
2463.09675.304
2561.26173.450
2659.55171.864
2757.87169.427
2856.36467.545
2955.16265.508
3053.90763.217
3152.45361.220
3251.29959.160
3349.99957.610
3448.88056.174
3547.84854.105
3646.59852.560
3745.69850.998
3844.65249.602
3943.40848.442
4042.40446.963
4141.45245.554
4240.64444.546
4339.74343.679
4438.87242.539
4537.99841.526
4637.12240.380
4736.42739.406
4835.51738.115
4934.92037.137
5034.20336.123
5133.19735.212
5232.53834.330
5331.82433.261
5431.03232.320
5530.43531.292
5629.81730.177
5729.04329.501
5828.44328.817
5927.87328.101
6027.20327.129
6126.62926.227
6226.04325.570
6325.49124.950
6424.98124.223
6524.35623.652
6623.76823.075
6723.17522.542
6822.72821.855
6922.24921.160
7021.70920.665
7121.08219.997
7220.50919.469
7319.99018.857
7419.36718.316
7518.86917.724
7618.36217.201
7717.72716.639
7817.02616.125
7916.40015.639
8015.92515.009
8115.41314.426
8214.92013.878
8314.33213.264
8413.72312.757
8513.19512.322
8612.64611.743
8712.03511.154
8811.44510.686
8910.91510.131
9010.2709.523
919.5998.963
928.9238.312
938.3177.630
947.5426.814
956.6846.239
965.8955.587
975.0494.654
984.3103.866
992.8702.965


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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