Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Nowendoc River at Rocks Crossing


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Product list for Nowendoc River at Rocks Crossing


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Probability distribution for Nowendoc River at Rocks Crossing(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile13.92719.507
Median24.27138.880
Mean33.56064.099
75% Quartile42.55477.629
Interquartile Range28.62758.122

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1160.232408.186
2130.063301.945
3111.671265.580
497.909238.489
590.340219.182
684.231195.450
778.726179.884
873.858166.101
970.891153.295
1067.136144.219
1164.529137.030
1262.501129.460
1360.393123.890
1458.171118.440
1556.065112.722
1653.996108.384
1752.586103.375
1851.22798.471
1949.77394.344
2048.73591.197
2147.21988.217
2245.87784.859
2344.89082.752
2443.52879.560
2542.55877.652
2641.56776.019
2740.48473.507
2839.45671.565
2938.57269.460
3037.80167.092
3136.85865.024
3235.67562.889
3334.86261.282
3434.20659.792
3533.19457.643
3632.51656.037
3731.98054.413
3831.29152.959
3930.59651.751
4030.00150.211
4129.34848.740
4228.81447.689
4328.31846.784
4427.69245.593
4527.02844.535
4626.35543.337
4725.82542.317
4825.37640.967
4924.81339.943
5024.27138.880
5123.86537.926
5223.36037.001
5322.77435.880
5422.41134.892
5521.84533.812
5621.50132.641
5720.94631.930
5820.52131.211
5920.12130.457
6019.78029.434
6119.33428.485
6218.90827.792
6318.50427.140
6418.14326.373
6517.74825.771
6617.43925.162
6717.09924.600
6816.67423.875
6916.35423.140
7015.95322.618
7115.58021.912
7215.19221.353
7314.72920.705
7414.34920.133
7513.92619.506
7613.56318.953
7713.11818.357
7812.79717.813
7912.38917.297
8012.01516.629
8111.63116.010
8211.32315.429
8310.91614.777
8410.49614.237
859.98413.775
869.57713.159
879.17412.532
888.71712.034
898.30811.443
907.89810.795
917.45810.197
926.8909.502
936.4918.773
945.9857.900
955.4497.285
964.7466.586
974.0925.584
983.3204.736
992.4883.765


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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