Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Nowendoc River at Rocks Crossing


Return to catchment list
Product list for Nowendoc River at Rocks Crossing


Download forecast data
Probability distribution for Nowendoc River at Rocks Crossing(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile69.97139.037
Median146.87893.331
Mean186.839157.069
75% Quartile270.477211.954
Interquartile Range200.507172.917

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1634.233809.309
2572.545671.959
3535.020618.557
4504.401574.959
5476.118542.894
6455.815498.694
7441.504467.954
8422.779439.521
9409.595411.484
10396.082390.671
11385.066373.582
12376.257354.928
13364.970340.937
14351.845327.068
15345.375312.013
16337.087300.215
17328.024286.623
18320.619273.002
19311.449261.215
20304.931252.068
21298.557243.354
22290.346233.804
23283.486227.224
24277.397217.782
25270.763211.957
26263.615207.000
27257.112199.559
28250.841193.745
29243.676187.094
30238.547179.910
31233.559173.466
32227.032167.047
33221.339162.070
34216.755157.243
35212.241150.749
36206.744145.667
37202.533140.692
38197.216136.140
39192.771132.464
40187.434127.720
41182.961123.227
42178.391119.958
43173.813117.243
44169.665113.574
45166.057110.331
46161.836106.767
47158.915103.593
48154.60599.533
49150.83896.524
50146.87893.331
51143.53990.487
52140.09087.693
53136.86784.489
54133.93781.490
55130.80678.511
56127.71974.986
57124.57172.947
58121.02970.920
59118.42268.734
60115.93365.924
61112.95463.186
62109.14261.230
63106.13459.435
64103.30557.273
6599.59955.620
6697.15953.960
6793.69452.434
6890.08050.481
6987.18748.516
7083.89547.128
7181.43345.265
7278.92043.801
7375.84242.116
7472.59940.640
7569.95639.035
7667.39937.628
7765.15036.126
7862.75334.765
7960.27133.485
8057.56631.844
8154.40730.338
8251.83128.937
8349.55027.383
8447.44226.112
8544.87325.033
8642.66523.611
8740.48822.182
8837.96921.060
8935.72119.746
9033.38918.325
9130.99517.038
9228.44715.565
9325.49814.052
9422.41612.287
9519.74611.075
9616.8089.732
9713.2907.877
9810.3976.380
996.6224.754


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


Creative Commons By Attribution logo
Unless otherwise noted, all material on this page is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution Australia Licence