Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Nowendoc River at Rocks Crossing


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Product list for Nowendoc River at Rocks Crossing


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Probability distribution for Nowendoc River at Rocks Crossing(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile84.41231.748
Median165.21166.550
Mean226.767119.206
75% Quartile308.744139.959
Interquartile Range224.332108.211

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1963.195857.128
2819.876613.773
3736.571532.753
4685.480473.296
5633.459431.429
6590.512380.584
7557.198347.622
8528.451318.704
9504.331292.072
10487.887273.338
11467.407258.587
12452.028243.140
13436.991231.829
14422.331220.812
15408.307209.304
16394.601200.610
17382.879190.613
18371.853180.868
19362.946172.700
20351.827166.495
21342.807160.634
22334.236154.053
23325.536149.935
24316.848143.711
25308.788140.002
26301.563136.834
27294.803131.971
28287.302128.221
29277.853124.167
30270.552119.617
31264.851115.654
32256.857111.576
33249.865108.512
34244.167105.677
35237.560101.599
36231.71698.559
37226.55695.492
38220.24192.752
39214.26490.480
40208.46087.589
41203.61784.836
42200.06882.872
43195.22681.183
44189.71678.966
45184.56176.998
46181.03174.776
47176.53972.888
48172.89470.393
49169.29368.506
50165.21166.550
51160.16264.798
52156.15163.103
53151.83861.052
54147.78559.250
55144.57857.284
56141.34655.156
57137.38253.869
58134.24752.567
59130.41751.206
60126.79049.363
61123.92547.656
62120.79346.414
63118.28845.245
64115.53843.876
65112.40642.802
66109.14641.718
67106.81940.718
68103.53939.432
69100.66138.132
7098.05937.209
7194.86535.964
7292.43634.981
7390.25933.844
7486.90732.842
7584.39731.746
7681.54830.781
7778.76129.744
7876.13128.799
7973.12527.906
8070.36026.752
8167.29125.685
8264.75624.685
8362.27023.568
8459.34322.647
8557.04721.859
8653.56520.813
8750.65819.752
8848.07018.911
8945.58617.916
9042.98316.830
9140.55815.833
9237.92314.679
9333.93713.474
9430.56612.042
9527.61511.038
9623.8269.907
9720.8258.300
9816.6486.956
9911.5635.439


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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