Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Nowendoc River at Rocks Crossing


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Product list for Nowendoc River at Rocks Crossing


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Probability distribution for Nowendoc River at Rocks Crossing(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile47.03631.098
Median83.42566.963
Mean117.179128.122
75% Quartile147.535144.925
Interquartile Range100.498113.827

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1582.1891033.416
2467.500702.228
3391.308599.506
4347.983526.302
5314.271475.798
6291.041415.557
7273.320377.116
8261.821343.769
9252.965313.360
10242.899292.139
11231.671275.525
12223.383258.217
13215.225245.602
14207.062233.361
15200.458220.622
16193.107211.033
17187.134200.040
18181.537189.360
19176.544180.437
20170.400173.675
21165.349167.302
22160.634160.160
23155.928155.701
24151.101148.974
25147.595144.972
26144.668141.557
27141.982136.325
28138.130132.297
29134.314127.948
30131.379123.076
31127.930118.840
32124.959114.488
33121.377111.222
34118.939108.205
35115.935103.870
36112.316100.644
37109.70797.394
38107.69294.495
39105.44192.093
40103.07289.041
41100.29286.138
4298.31484.070
4396.28382.292
4494.13979.962
4592.72377.896
4691.27775.566
4789.57373.588
4887.45270.976
4985.05169.004
5083.42566.963
5181.49265.136
5280.02063.370
5378.54761.236
5476.64759.363
5574.54257.323
5673.10455.117
5771.65053.784
5870.14652.437
5968.76551.031
6067.45849.129
6166.01647.369
6264.53546.090
6362.86644.889
6461.47143.482
6560.16142.379
6658.70541.267
6757.27840.243
6856.09538.927
6954.96037.598
7053.61236.656
7152.23935.386
7250.93334.385
7349.57733.227
7447.99832.209
7547.02731.096
7645.40930.118
7743.82329.067
7842.34328.111
7941.14627.208
8039.68326.044
8138.47124.969
8237.07223.963
8335.79322.840
8434.61121.916
8533.42221.127
8631.95520.080
8730.61719.021
8829.30618.183
8928.26217.193
9026.87016.115
9125.73115.127
9224.21313.987
9322.42112.799
9420.52711.393
9518.72610.411
9616.9939.308
9714.6377.749
9812.2796.454
999.4905.002


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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