Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Nowendoc River at Rocks Crossing


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Product list for Nowendoc River at Rocks Crossing



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Probability distribution for Nowendoc River at Rocks Crossing ( Jan  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile40.10839.641
Median89.46595.875
Mean133.025169.218
75% Quartile188.023223.109
Interquartile Range147.915183.468

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1578.748932.422
2506.652764.946
3456.591700.066
4421.969647.257
5393.664608.541
6373.660555.389
7356.161518.609
8336.425484.754
9321.549451.554
10311.979427.042
11299.317407.012
12290.425385.252
13279.527369.012
14269.104352.983
15260.424335.667
16250.401322.161
17242.235306.676
18235.568291.238
19225.587277.945
20218.215267.675
21211.630257.928
22206.080247.288
23198.692239.982
24193.904229.535
25188.061223.113
26182.880217.660
27177.796209.499
28171.706203.140
29166.127195.887
30161.109188.078
31155.169181.094
32150.027174.157
33145.022168.793
34140.924163.602
35137.240156.636
36132.758151.198
37128.775145.886
38126.418141.036
39122.593137.127
40119.193132.090
41115.617127.330
42112.799123.872
43109.704121.004
44106.212117.132
45102.970113.715
46100.348109.965
4797.952106.630
4895.174102.370
4992.71199.217
5089.46595.875
5187.26092.903
5284.64289.985
5382.18086.643
5479.91483.518
5578.06780.418
5675.89576.754
5773.55274.636
5871.58272.533
5968.71070.265
6066.75867.354
6165.18064.521
6263.12662.498
6360.54260.643
6458.90458.409
6557.25056.704
6655.12354.991
6753.42253.418
6851.60551.405
6950.27249.382
7048.42947.953
7146.60646.037
7244.76444.533
7343.35442.802
7441.93541.286
7540.09339.638
7638.13738.196
7736.85336.655
7835.17235.261
7932.95133.951
8031.09932.271
8129.47430.730
8228.23629.297
8326.74627.710
8425.41426.412
8524.06025.310
8622.65223.860
8721.54222.403
8819.95321.260
8918.29519.921
9016.99318.476
9115.84017.167
9214.19515.671
9312.92114.135
9411.39212.345
959.76111.117
968.1339.758
976.2307.884
984.2856.373
991.8424.738


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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