Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Nowendoc River at Rocks Crossing


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Product list for Nowendoc River at Rocks Crossing


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Historical and exceedance probability for Nowendoc River at Rocks Crossing( Aug 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Minimum (1994) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1967) (GL)
Aug23.6369.6503.11414.53595.162
Aug-Sep40.60515.8914.54327.507225.692
Aug-Oct63.79619.5224.87739.654520.340

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1048.051136.121
2033.52087.145
3025.59464.917
4020.09649.235
5015.89138.602
6012.61629.635
709.98623.080
807.15317.241
904.36511.445

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1119.060416.248
295.713292.491
381.635254.185
472.334226.693
565.942207.568
661.369184.522
756.874169.645
853.350156.606
950.456144.590
1048.051136.121
1146.100129.438
1243.637122.422
1342.181117.269
1440.217112.237
1539.025106.963
1637.984102.966
1736.79098.353
1835.44493.839
1934.45490.041
2033.52087.145
2132.49084.401
2231.76881.310
2330.95679.369
2429.82476.428
2529.04774.669
2628.12173.163
2727.51570.844
2826.97869.052
2926.31767.107
3025.59464.917
3124.82563.003
3224.28261.026
3323.63859.536
3423.15358.154
3522.62956.158
3622.20554.665
3721.64253.153
3821.11451.799
3920.61350.673
4020.09649.235
4119.46247.861
4219.04846.878
4318.70246.030
4418.27344.915
4517.83943.922
4617.44442.798
4717.10841.840
4816.75340.569
4916.33839.604
5015.89138.602
5115.42437.701
5215.11636.827
5314.76735.765
5414.53034.830
5514.16133.805
5613.82932.692
5713.49132.016
5813.20031.330
5912.90230.612
6012.61629.635
6112.28828.727
6212.06128.063
6311.82427.438
6411.54226.702
6511.27926.123
6611.01025.537
6710.76324.995
6810.49824.296
6910.22523.586
709.98623.080
719.71222.396
729.44221.854
739.17321.225
748.86220.668
758.57820.058
768.25119.518
777.96018.935
787.63518.402
797.40617.897
807.15317.241
816.83116.632
826.59916.058
836.35515.414
846.04714.880
855.80514.421
865.54213.810
875.30513.185
885.06512.688
894.75212.096
904.36511.445
914.06610.844
923.73810.142
933.2949.403
942.9648.514
952.5087.884
962.0217.165
971.5436.127
981.0535.242
990.1914.217


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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