Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Nowendoc River at Rocks Crossing


Return to catchment list
Product list for Nowendoc River at Rocks Crossing


Download forecast data
Historical and exceedance probability for Nowendoc River at Rocks Crossing(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2011) (GL)Observed (2012) (GL)Minimum (1994) (GL)10 yr average (2002+) (GL)Maximum (1967) (GL)
Sep17.3539.5844.6411.42812.457130.530
Sep-Oct41.15121.45011.5411.76323.982425.178
Sep-Nov66.99956.79917.9012.46147.840462.815

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1087.312139.283
2060.52286.651
3045.98063.217
4036.14546.963
5029.03236.123
6023.02327.129
7018.27920.665
8013.36415.009
908.4419.523

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1231.331438.027
2173.562308.828
3147.768267.623
4130.795237.825
5120.909217.026
6110.338191.923
7103.734175.717
897.544161.526
991.722148.469
1087.312139.283
1183.137132.048
1279.417124.465
1376.180118.907
1473.368113.489
1570.922107.822
1668.455103.535
1766.30098.598
1864.05193.778
1961.97689.730
2060.52286.651
2158.67683.739
2257.22880.463
2355.37078.410
2453.93575.304
2552.40573.450
2650.85071.864
2749.41869.427
2848.22867.545
2947.05265.508
3045.98063.217
3144.69061.220
3243.47559.160
3342.48457.610
3441.58156.174
3540.64954.105
3639.75352.560
3739.00450.998
3838.04949.602
3937.09448.442
4036.14546.963
4135.18345.554
4234.47744.546
4333.84343.679
4433.03242.539
4532.37041.526
4631.55640.380
4730.98439.406
4830.26838.115
4929.64837.137
5029.03236.123
5128.35135.212
5227.67734.330
5327.00233.261
5426.37132.320
5525.81331.292
5625.30530.177
5724.76929.501
5824.18828.817
5923.60228.101
6023.02327.129
6122.62126.227
6222.14925.570
6321.51324.950
6421.03424.223
6520.64523.652
6620.15723.075
6719.58422.542
6819.20321.855
6918.75721.160
7018.27920.665
7117.79019.997
7217.23419.469
7316.87818.857
7416.33718.316
7515.95417.724
7615.45917.201
7714.96616.639
7814.37516.125
7913.85715.639
8013.36415.009
8112.96414.426
8212.45113.878
8312.01313.264
8411.52912.757
8511.06012.322
8610.52611.743
8710.01311.154
889.56510.686
899.11410.131
908.4419.523
917.9278.963
927.4318.312
936.8017.630
946.2546.814
955.4516.239
964.7755.587
973.9854.654
983.3533.866
992.1312.965


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


Creative Commons By Attribution logo
Unless otherwise noted, all material on this page is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution Australia Licence