Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Nowendoc River at Rocks Crossing


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Product list for Nowendoc River at Rocks Crossing


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Historical and exceedance probability for Nowendoc River at Rocks Crossing(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2011) (GL)Observed (2012) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2002+) (GL)Maximum (1955) (GL)
Dec19.21926.34811.8264.21423.25550.522
Dec-Jan73.16760.70930.6566.46749.38372.335
Dec-Feb131.155217.181155.2449.23999.942631.843

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10195.181294.414
20131.681183.006
3096.947130.758
4073.67294.422
5057.14670.642
6044.42351.455
7033.37037.983
8023.48226.682
9013.94216.237

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1451.709714.093
2370.317566.994
3316.234511.551
4281.592467.307
5260.746435.461
6241.764392.666
7228.891363.741
8216.731337.651
9204.354312.583
10195.181294.414
11185.225279.780
12175.236264.099
13167.490252.541
14161.072241.253
15155.033229.189
16150.645219.869
17145.526209.277
18140.641198.811
19135.855189.871
20131.681183.006
21127.162176.523
22123.232169.478
23119.362164.660
24115.978157.793
25112.083153.584
26109.003150.018
27105.350144.691
28102.550140.548
2999.854135.830
3096.947130.758
3194.395126.226
3291.920121.727
3389.148118.250
3486.616114.885
3584.170110.369
3682.123106.841
3779.878103.393
3878.177100.243
3976.02697.701
4073.67294.422
4171.81691.319
4269.91589.061
4367.92687.186
4465.76184.652
4564.40082.412
4662.98279.948
4761.34277.753
4859.60574.942
4958.39572.857
5057.14670.642
5155.64368.666
5254.47966.723
5352.99164.490
5451.86062.397
5550.48460.314
5649.21657.843
5748.18256.410
5846.92454.984
5945.62553.441
6044.42351.455
6143.03149.514
6242.09848.123
6341.05346.843
6439.90045.298
6538.76744.114
6637.84442.922
6736.87841.824
6835.88840.414
6934.60038.991
7033.37037.983
7132.46536.625
7231.36835.556
7330.67434.320
7429.42433.234
7528.49232.049
7627.48631.007
7726.45929.890
7825.52928.874
7924.58427.916
8023.48226.682
8122.70425.544
8221.87724.480
8320.94423.295
8419.93422.321
8519.09821.490
8618.22920.389
8717.15219.277
8816.26318.399
8915.04517.363
9013.94216.237
9113.12815.209
9212.14214.023
9311.01312.792
9410.04511.340
959.09510.330
967.6399.198
976.4437.608
984.8926.295
992.8834.835


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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