Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Nowendoc River at Rocks Crossing


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Product list for Nowendoc River at Rocks Crossing


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Historical and exceedance probability for Nowendoc River at Rocks Crossing(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (1980) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1956) (GL)
Jan53.34334.36218.8303.77126.12821.813
Jan-Feb111.433190.834143.4187.31076.688581.321
Jan-Mar178.702213.433436.23010.031102.837850.740

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10422.143427.042
20318.752267.675
30247.908188.078
40191.277132.090
50148.08895.875
60113.54567.354
7083.89147.953
8056.84232.271
9031.76718.476

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1728.814932.422
2622.976764.946
3588.299700.066
4544.811647.257
5514.334608.541
6490.135555.389
7467.485518.609
8452.791484.754
9437.243451.554
10422.143427.042
11408.478407.012
12396.080385.252
13384.583369.012
14375.668352.983
15366.359335.667
16354.746322.161
17345.606306.676
18335.919291.238
19328.920277.945
20318.752267.675
21309.303257.928
22301.665247.288
23293.855239.982
24287.856229.535
25281.730223.113
26275.758217.660
27268.712209.499
28262.115203.140
29254.921195.887
30247.908188.078
31241.756181.094
32235.464174.157
33228.739168.793
34224.177163.602
35218.406156.636
36213.633151.198
37207.656145.886
38202.473141.036
39196.345137.127
40191.277132.090
41186.766127.330
42183.414123.872
43179.274121.004
44173.749117.132
45169.685113.715
46164.346109.965
47160.381106.630
48156.942102.370
49152.64799.217
50148.08895.875
51144.01292.903
52139.05989.985
53136.12986.643
54132.90183.518
55129.39280.418
56125.64576.754
57122.76074.636
58119.60172.533
59116.65270.265
60113.54567.354
61110.67664.521
62107.66762.498
63104.07160.643
64101.76758.409
6598.63356.704
6696.13454.991
6793.09053.418
6889.98851.405
6986.66749.382
7083.89147.953
7180.78646.037
7278.35044.533
7375.46642.802
7472.77241.286
7570.09139.638
7667.39438.196
7764.22836.655
7862.17035.261
7959.54933.951
8056.84232.271
8154.26730.730
8251.38829.297
8348.43727.710
8446.01426.412
8543.96325.310
8641.46323.860
8738.73922.403
8836.38221.260
8933.85319.921
9031.76718.476
9129.81217.167
9226.85615.671
9324.02214.135
9421.54612.345
9519.01611.117
9616.5299.758
9713.8797.884
9810.2406.373
996.8324.738


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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