Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Nowendoc River at Rocks Crossing


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Product list for Nowendoc River at Rocks Crossing


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Historical and exceedance probability for Nowendoc River at Rocks Crossing(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (1966) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1967) (GL)
Jun52.59710.94616.9272.95258.114362.770
Jun-Jul86.88223.35836.8164.75972.336440.378
Jun-Aug110.74431.29946.4666.56786.474535.540

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10175.691199.453
20125.229129.677
3096.75696.938
4077.38073.504
5063.35357.562
6051.46144.125
7040.96034.226
8030.51525.479
9020.28316.826

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1357.296509.207
2308.181390.393
3274.829348.442
4251.017316.154
5232.143293.565
6215.716264.040
7200.361244.594
8191.332227.380
9183.755211.105
10175.691199.453
11167.045190.146
12161.045180.242
13154.134172.980
14149.783165.914
15145.264158.386
16139.898152.584
17136.398145.998
18131.794139.497
19127.959133.944
20125.229129.677
21121.123125.644
22118.823121.256
23115.701118.251
24112.496113.960
25110.014111.325
26107.052109.089
27103.455105.741
28101.351103.131
2999.196100.152
3096.75696.938
3194.37594.058
3291.97491.189
3390.02988.963
3488.46386.804
3586.29483.894
3683.99881.612
3782.21979.373
3880.72777.319
3978.95275.657
4077.38073.504
4175.91871.457
4274.64069.963
4372.94568.718
4471.22067.029
4569.68065.531
4668.27663.877
4766.96762.397
4865.78360.494
4964.62459.075
5063.35357.562
5162.39556.206
5261.16054.867
5359.92453.322
5458.63851.866
5557.55650.409
5656.33248.671
5755.09747.659
5853.94246.647
5952.74745.548
6051.46144.125
6150.37442.727
6249.46141.720
6348.44340.789
6447.22939.660
6546.31138.791
6645.15437.911
6744.14537.098
6842.99436.049
6942.05934.984
7040.96034.226
7140.02133.201
7238.72132.388
7337.83431.444
7436.80030.610
7535.84029.695
7634.83128.886
7733.88328.014
7832.63327.216
7931.70126.460
8030.51525.479
8129.50924.567
8228.33823.710
8327.34122.747
8426.45621.949
8525.50321.264
8624.32120.351
8723.28019.420
8822.33218.678
8921.36917.796
9020.28316.826
9119.21215.932
9217.86714.887
9316.73213.788
9415.62612.468
9514.12811.534
9612.54910.469
9710.6968.934
988.8807.627
996.5566.118


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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