Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Nowendoc River at Rocks Crossing


Return to catchment list
Product list for Nowendoc River at Rocks Crossing


Download forecast data
Historical and exceedance probability for Nowendoc River at Rocks Crossing(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (1966) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1952) (GL)
Jul34.28412.41219.8891.80714.22312.168
Jul-Aug58.14620.35329.5393.61628.360314.866
Jul-Sep75.29024.99435.7805.77141.051336.892

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10105.939149.300
2078.96498.348
3063.11974.260
4051.81356.922
5043.60145.002
6036.67934.839
7030.11027.339
8023.55120.598
9016.80513.835

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1212.495380.593
2178.118290.549
3159.551258.981
4145.371235.134
5134.631217.944
6126.466196.563
7119.636182.374
8114.362169.690
9109.816157.797
10105.939149.300
11101.941142.527
1297.950135.354
1395.063130.047
1492.568124.830
1590.017119.328
1687.660115.135
1785.621110.273
1883.211105.489
1980.901101.444
2078.96498.348
2177.01395.407
2275.58292.081
2373.61289.988
2472.01286.806
2570.11584.899
2668.91383.263
2767.33080.740
2866.00078.784
2964.22176.659
3063.11974.260
3162.03372.159
3261.04769.985
3360.01968.343
3458.90066.817
3557.44064.611
3656.28062.957
3754.93461.281
3853.87659.776
3952.86258.523
4051.81356.922
4150.89155.389
4250.02654.291
4349.32953.344
4448.45752.096
4547.38450.983
4646.58049.722
4745.84948.646
4845.19347.217
4944.32046.131
5043.60145.002
5142.82543.986
5242.11342.998
5341.40241.799
5440.79040.740
5540.18139.579
5639.49238.316
5738.60837.548
5837.98436.769
5937.22335.952
6036.67934.839
6135.93833.804
6235.40633.047
6334.56232.332
6433.85931.491
6533.29630.829
6632.64430.158
6732.08229.537
6831.44328.735
6930.74527.920
7030.11027.339
7129.52326.553
7228.90925.929
7328.23225.204
7427.42724.562
7526.81223.857
7626.31723.234
7725.61122.560
7825.00321.943
7924.43921.358
8023.55120.598
8122.89019.890
8222.33119.224
8321.59318.474
8420.95217.853
8520.32117.318
8619.60416.604
8718.90415.874
8818.12415.292
8917.48514.599
9016.80513.835
9116.10213.129
9215.34212.302
9314.42111.430
9413.55110.378
9512.5789.631
9611.3608.776
9710.2707.538
988.9846.478
997.0375.243


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


Creative Commons By Attribution logo
Unless otherwise noted, all material on this page is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution Australia Licence