Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Nowendoc River at Rocks Crossing


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Product list for Nowendoc River at Rocks Crossing


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Historical and exceedance probability for Nowendoc River at Rocks Crossing(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (1994) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1967) (GL)
Sep17.1444.6416.2421.42812.691130.530
Sep-Oct40.66111.5419.8721.76324.877425.178
Sep-Nov66.17317.90115.4022.46149.333462.815

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1097.028139.283
2067.29186.651
3051.07063.217
4040.32846.963
5032.38036.123
6025.80527.129
7020.54720.665
8015.07515.009
909.6219.523

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1255.925438.027
2190.822308.828
3162.868267.623
4144.479237.825
5133.659217.026
6121.860191.923
7115.166175.717
8107.811161.526
9101.866148.469
1097.028139.283
1192.053132.048
1287.952124.465
1384.711118.907
1481.700113.489
1578.839107.822
1675.905103.535
1773.73398.598
1871.14993.778
1968.88189.730
2067.29186.651
2165.07483.739
2263.33080.463
2361.60178.410
2460.03275.304
2558.14773.450
2656.58871.864
2755.00069.427
2853.53567.545
2952.43165.508
3051.07063.217
3149.86661.220
3248.64559.160
3347.41057.610
3446.44556.174
3545.31154.105
3644.29352.560
3743.40250.998
3842.42349.602
3941.26648.442
4040.32846.963
4139.30145.554
4238.48344.546
4337.74543.679
4436.91642.539
4536.00041.526
4635.24840.380
4734.55539.406
4833.77838.115
4933.10137.137
5032.38036.123
5131.54835.212
5230.90134.330
5330.13333.261
5429.42832.320
5528.82831.292
5628.26030.177
5727.63029.501
5826.96028.817
5926.37328.101
6025.80527.129
6125.22326.227
6224.64725.570
6324.16524.950
6423.65024.223
6523.08623.652
6622.53423.075
6721.93522.542
6821.51921.855
6921.09021.160
7020.54720.665
7119.98119.997
7219.47319.469
7318.93518.857
7418.32718.316
7517.87517.724
7617.42817.201
7716.78516.639
7816.12816.125
7915.50715.639
8015.07515.009
8114.54214.426
8214.08613.878
8313.50913.264
8412.94412.757
8512.43012.322
8611.95311.743
8711.34511.154
8810.75410.686
8910.28310.131
909.6219.523
919.0288.963
928.4258.312
937.7667.630
947.1206.814
956.2616.239
965.5305.587
974.6994.654
983.9293.866
992.6162.965


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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