Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Nowendoc River at Rocks Crossing


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Product list for Nowendoc River at Rocks Crossing


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Historical and exceedance probability for Nowendoc River at Rocks Crossing(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1955) (GL)
Dec19.09611.8262.8004.21423.94650.522
Dec-Jan72.45930.6563.9756.46751.84072.335
Dec-Feb131.595155.2446.0299.239113.250631.843

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10223.847294.414
20152.289183.006
30113.280130.758
4086.35494.422
5066.77270.642
6052.27051.455
7039.55737.983
8028.00526.682
9016.91016.237

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1513.727714.093
2414.388566.994
3359.129511.551
4319.809467.307
5295.175435.461
6277.757392.666
7261.057363.741
8247.757337.651
9234.746312.583
10223.847294.414
11211.503279.780
12201.613264.099
13194.813252.541
14188.584241.253
15180.936229.189
16174.756219.869
17168.889209.277
18163.345198.811
19157.708189.871
20152.289183.006
21147.597176.523
22143.499169.478
23138.944164.660
24134.636157.793
25130.069153.584
26126.215150.018
27123.680144.691
28119.667140.548
29116.066135.830
30113.280130.758
31110.530126.226
32107.445121.727
33104.303118.250
34101.090114.885
3598.053110.369
3695.823106.841
3793.529103.393
3890.889100.243
3988.68197.701
4086.35494.422
4184.07991.319
4281.88789.061
4378.95787.186
4477.26784.652
4575.56782.412
4673.82279.948
4771.79877.753
4870.06174.942
4968.59272.857
5066.77270.642
5165.59268.666
5264.04566.723
5362.47164.490
5460.95062.397
5559.50260.314
5657.99457.843
5756.41956.410
5854.90754.984
5953.83253.441
6052.27051.455
6150.81249.514
6249.57148.123
6348.20146.843
6446.96545.298
6545.52344.114
6644.40642.922
6743.42241.824
6842.27240.414
6941.06038.991
7039.55737.983
7138.48436.625
7237.47335.556
7336.23134.320
7434.77633.234
7533.62832.049
7632.60431.007
7731.34129.890
7830.43428.874
7929.02827.916
8028.00526.682
8126.88025.544
8226.02524.480
8324.85723.295
8423.66322.321
8522.85521.490
8621.73220.389
8720.49119.277
8819.39918.399
8918.24517.363
9016.91016.237
9115.63415.209
9214.58514.023
9313.39612.792
9412.23011.340
9510.88510.330
969.5839.198
978.1787.608
986.2786.295
993.8664.835


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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