Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Nowendoc River at Rocks Crossing


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Product list for Nowendoc River at Rocks Crossing


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Historical and exceedance probability for Nowendoc River at Rocks Crossing(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Observed (2014) (GL)Minimum (1966) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1962) (GL)
May54.94718.9762.6292.61642.101814.873
May-Jun106.98735.9025.1085.568100.453913.195
May-Jul141.04255.7926.8127.375116.0561152.204

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10127.252292.139
2088.743173.675
3067.714123.076
4052.84989.041
5042.25666.963
6034.07749.129
7026.69336.656
8019.59126.044
9012.96116.115

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1312.3091033.416
2247.799702.228
3211.634599.506
4188.707526.302
5166.179475.798
6154.965415.557
7146.945377.116
8140.324343.769
9133.007313.360
10127.252292.139
11121.219275.525
12115.674258.217
13111.484245.602
14108.123233.361
15104.895220.622
16101.554211.033
1796.891200.040
1893.884189.360
1990.927180.437
2088.743173.675
2185.831167.302
2283.587160.160
2380.555155.701
2478.732148.974
2577.411144.972
2674.916141.557
2773.300136.325
2871.441132.297
2969.693127.948
3067.714123.076
3166.170118.840
3264.336114.488
3362.628111.222
3460.775108.205
3559.327103.870
3658.110100.644
3756.86497.394
3855.64594.495
3954.32192.093
4052.84989.041
4151.59986.138
4250.62084.070
4349.80082.292
4448.55279.962
4547.47877.896
4646.31675.566
4745.42373.588
4844.52870.976
4943.57469.004
5042.25666.963
5141.44165.136
5240.46863.370
5339.63561.236
5438.91259.363
5538.10057.323
5637.06355.117
5736.37953.784
5835.62252.437
5934.75351.031
6034.07749.129
6133.32047.369
6232.54246.090
6331.79844.889
6431.15243.482
6530.30642.379
6629.71241.267
6728.89040.243
6828.19638.927
6927.50437.598
7026.69336.656
7126.11535.386
7225.53134.385
7324.66633.227
7423.93232.209
7523.06331.096
7622.35230.118
7721.59229.067
7821.02528.111
7920.37227.208
8019.59126.044
8118.99024.969
8218.20723.963
8317.45022.840
8416.71621.916
8515.91921.127
8615.35020.080
8714.81219.021
8814.21518.183
8913.61217.193
9012.96116.115
9112.17215.127
9211.40313.987
9310.44812.799
949.55411.393
958.43010.411
967.6599.308
976.3937.749
985.2966.454
993.6305.002


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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