Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Nowendoc River at Rocks Crossing


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Historical and exceedance probability for Nowendoc River at Rocks Crossing ( Jan 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Observed (2014) (GL)Minimum (1980) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1956) (GL)
Jan52.77718.8301.1753.77127.89421.813
Jan-Feb111.994143.4183.2297.31089.304581.321
Jan-Mar183.086436.23010.61710.031143.339850.740

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10417.255427.042
20311.160267.675
30243.586188.078
40185.665132.090
50140.91495.875
60107.62767.354
7078.14447.953
8052.24332.271
9028.92218.476

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1736.071932.422
2635.898764.946
3584.058700.066
4541.206647.257
5512.115608.541
6490.416555.389
7473.218518.609
8448.789484.754
9432.065451.554
10417.255427.042
11403.372407.012
12390.741385.252
13379.830369.012
14367.510352.983
15356.634335.667
16344.498322.161
17336.233306.676
18328.227291.238
19319.320277.945
20311.160267.675
21302.346257.928
22292.959247.288
23286.608239.982
24279.345229.535
25271.533223.113
26266.415217.660
27260.822209.499
28253.721203.140
29248.272195.887
30243.586188.078
31236.199181.094
32230.695174.157
33223.615168.793
34218.736163.602
35212.745156.636
36205.467151.198
37200.022145.886
38194.079141.036
39190.441137.127
40185.665132.090
41180.656127.330
42175.883123.872
43170.713121.004
44166.090117.132
45161.676113.715
46157.778109.965
47153.121106.630
48149.143102.370
49145.28299.217
50140.91495.875
51136.80392.903
52132.91889.985
53129.69286.643
54126.17383.518
55123.07380.418
56119.71776.754
57116.02074.636
58113.27872.533
59110.63470.265
60107.62767.354
61104.16364.521
62101.57562.498
6398.32860.643
6494.77658.409
6592.01556.704
6690.05754.991
6787.20153.418
6883.54351.405
6980.69249.382
7078.14447.953
7175.33746.037
7273.63644.533
7370.58542.802
7467.78941.286
7564.90739.638
7662.14738.196
7759.23236.655
7856.47235.261
7954.47033.951
8052.24332.271
8149.50230.730
8247.51929.297
8345.29127.710
8442.86126.412
8540.37225.310
8638.25523.860
8735.98122.403
8833.73621.260
8931.57019.921
9028.92218.476
9126.30217.167
9224.45115.671
9322.06614.135
9419.42512.345
9516.82911.117
9614.7309.758
9711.8967.884
989.0006.373
995.8574.738


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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