Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Nowendoc River at Rocks Crossing


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Historical and exceedance probability for Nowendoc River at Rocks Crossing ( Feb 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Observed (2014) (GL)Minimum (1980) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1956) (GL)
Feb59.217124.5882.0543.53961.410559.508
Feb-Mar130.309417.4009.4426.260115.445828.927
Feb-Apr167.746443.76316.5727.353156.994868.008

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10326.446390.671
20235.018252.068
30173.468179.910
40132.382127.720
50101.60793.331
6076.42065.924
7054.48347.128
8035.41131.844
9019.88718.325

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1567.546809.309
2495.730671.959
3460.142618.557
4429.092574.959
5404.926542.894
6384.453498.694
7366.700467.954
8352.592439.521
9338.742411.484
10326.446390.671
11314.197373.582
12306.169354.928
13297.781340.937
14286.336327.068
15274.907312.013
16267.522300.215
17260.834286.623
18250.845273.002
19244.548261.215
20235.018252.068
21228.044243.354
22222.455233.804
23216.000227.224
24209.554217.782
25203.211211.957
26195.658207.000
27189.644199.559
28184.193193.745
29179.373187.094
30173.468179.910
31169.570173.466
32165.988167.047
33160.921162.070
34156.739157.243
35152.647150.749
36148.663145.667
37144.185140.692
38139.652136.140
39136.116132.464
40132.382127.720
41129.798123.227
42126.349119.958
43122.868117.243
44119.254113.574
45116.274110.331
46112.812106.767
47109.654103.593
48107.12899.533
49104.64096.524
50101.60793.331
5199.05290.487
5296.18287.693
5393.16384.489
5491.12581.490
5588.82378.511
5686.80774.986
5784.15072.947
5881.67370.920
5979.25568.734
6076.42065.924
6174.13563.186
6272.20461.230
6369.45259.435
6467.12357.273
6564.84455.620
6662.87453.960
6760.56252.434
6858.95550.481
6956.68748.516
7054.48347.128
7152.29345.265
7250.16543.801
7348.32242.116
7446.04640.640
7544.43339.035
7642.94637.628
7740.85336.126
7838.87534.765
7937.09333.485
8035.41131.844
8133.81230.338
8232.22528.937
8330.03127.383
8428.41826.112
8527.17525.033
8625.61023.611
8724.31222.182
8822.67621.060
8921.41119.746
9019.88718.325
9118.29617.038
9216.58115.565
9314.73514.052
9412.73112.287
9511.10511.075
969.3419.732
977.5287.877
985.3066.380
992.6264.754


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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